Chamber and committees

If Fulton MacGregor sends me details, I will be more than happy to look into that further and issue whatever guidance we may deem to be necessary as a result. I remind the Parliament, though, that there are currently no limits on the size of events that can take place in Scotland as a result of the Covid rules. Of course, events that are attended by more than a certain number of people—the number varies based on whether the event is indoors or outdoors—will be subject to Covid certification. However, I set out last week that, because of the introduction of Covid vaccination certification, the rules about events of a certain size needing permission were being removed, so there is no overall limit on the size of events that can take place.

No, there is not, and I think that people know that. I was delighted that many of Murdo Fraser’s colleagues introduced me to their guests here on Saturday. There were moments when photographs were being taken in the building when face coverings were not on, but that does not mean that the rules apply to one person but not to another.

I do not want us to be in a position of having to wear face coverings for longer than is necessary and I certainly do not want to ask anyone else to do that, but that brings us back to the central point. We cannot pretend that the virus does not exist, so what are the proportionate and least restrictive measures that we can take to keep it under control?

Murdo Fraser is perhaps making for me the point that I made to Douglas Ross: we know what the Conservatives do not want us to do regarding mitigations; what we do not hear is how they think that we should keep the virus under control over the winter.

Many of us have school-age relatives and friends. If there was any setting that I would like to have as the first where we lift the requirement to wear face coverings, it would be the classroom, because the requirement is far from ideal for young people. However, we have to take advice and listen to that. The advisory sub-group is meeting this afternoon and we await its latest advice, which we will share with Parliament in due course.

I will give a further update on the latest Covid situation. I will provide an assessment of the current course of the pandemic in Scotland and, in light of that, confirm that there will be no immediate changes this week to the remaining, albeit fairly limited, Covid regulations that remain in force. I will then give a reminder of the new arrangements for international travel, which took effect yesterday. Finally, I will provide an update on the implementation of the Covid vaccination certification scheme so far, including the progress that has been made in resolving the initial difficulties that many people experienced in accessing the Covid status app at the end of last week.

First, I will report on today’s statistics. There were 2,056 positive cases reported yesterday—10.3 per cent of tests carried out. There are 998 people in hospital with Covid, which is three fewer than yesterday, and 65 people are receiving intensive care, which is two fewer than yesterday. Sadly, though, a further 21 deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours. That takes the total number of deaths registered under the daily definition to 8,687. My condolences, yet again, go to everyone who has lost a loved one.

More positively, the vaccination programme continues apace and is making good progress: 4,223,719 people have received a first dose so far and 3,849,656 people have now had both doses, which means that they are fully vaccinated. In total, 92 per cent of the over-18 population is now fully vaccinated with two doses. That includes 96 per cent of the over 40s, 75 per cent of 30 to 39-year-olds and 64 per cent of 18 to 29-year-olds.

In addition, so far, 72 per cent of 16 and 17-year-olds and 26 per cent of 12 to 15-year-olds have had a first dose. For most people in those age groups, only a single dose is currently recommended. Most 12 to 15-year-olds became eligible for the vaccine only two weeks ago, and appointment letters were sent out to them last week, so the fact that more than a quarter of people in that age group have already received the vaccine is highly encouraging.

I again encourage all 12 to 15-year-olds and their parents and carers to read the online information about vaccination, so that they can take an informed decision about getting the jag. I remind them that there is also the option of asking further questions when they attend an appointment; I encourage anyone with concerns to do so. I am confident that our experienced vaccinators will be able to answer any questions and address any concerns.

As I indicated last week, the programme of booster vaccinations is also under way. People over 70 and people on the highest-risk list are now receiving booster jags. People on the highest-risk list who are immunosuppressed or immunocompromised are being invited separately for a third dose.

This weekly update coincides with the latest three-week review point for the remaining Covid regulations. As I indicated earlier, I can confirm that, at our meeting earlier today, the Cabinet agreed to keep the current regulations in force, with no immediate change.

That decision reflects two things. First, the number of cases is continuing to fall, so our judgment is that there is no need to introduce tighter restrictions. Secondly, the level of infection, although it is falling, remains relatively high and we consider that it is prudent at this stage, as we approach winter, to keep in place the remaining mitigations, such as face coverings, for a further period.

I will give a bit more detail about the trends that we are seeing in cases and the associated impacts. In the past seven days, the number of cases has reduced by more than a fifth. The number of cases is now more than 60 per cent lower than it was at the peak of this latest wave of infection, back in early September.

Although there are daily fluctuations, the trend in test positivity is also firmly downwards—from a peak of more than 13 per cent in late August to just over 8 per cent now.

Significantly and positively, the fall in cases continues to be apparent across all age groups. The most significant decline this week, again, has been among 15 to 24-year-olds. Cases in that age group have fallen by almost 40 per cent in the past seven days and by more than 80 per cent in the past five weeks.

It is worth highlighting that in the 0 to 14-year-old age group, which currently accounts for almost 30 per cent of all new cases, there has been a reduction of more than a fifth in the past week and of more than a half in the past three weeks. That is important, because although children are much less likely than older people to fall seriously ill from Covid, they can fall ill and they can and do pass on the infection to others, who might be more vulnerable to serious illness. Therefore the reduction is positive, although we should continue to guard against complacency.

The advisory sub-group on education and children’s issues is meeting this afternoon and will consider the mitigations that are currently in place in schools, including the requirement to wear face coverings in class. It may well be that the group recommends keeping the current mitigations in place for longer, given the risks of the winter period. However, should it advise that any easing is possible following the October half term, the Government will consider that carefully and will advise schools of any changes as soon as possible.

I speculated last week that the recent fall in cases is likely to have been driven by two factors, which remains our view this week. The first factor is increasing immunity as a result of high vaccination rates and, albeit to a lesser extent, because of infection with the virus. That underlines again the critical importance of all of us getting vaccinated if we are eligible, which includes getting a booster jag when invited.

The second factor is our individual and collective behaviour. I again thank everyone who has taken extra care in recent weeks in an attempt to stop and then reverse the spike in cases. That includes the many businesses and other organisations that are continuing to implement and promote the basic mitigation measures that are still in place, such as face coverings, hand hygiene, good ventilation and—where possible—continued home working.

I am relieved to report that the significant and sustained fall in cases over recent weeks is feeding through into a fall in hospital admissions. In the second week of September, an average of 150 people a day were being admitted to hospital with Covid. That number has now fallen by more than a third—at this point, fewer than 100 people a day are being admitted to hospital with Covid.

As a result of the fall in hospital admissions, we are seeing a decline in hospital occupancy—the overall number of Covid patients in hospital at any given time. Two weeks ago, 1,107 patients were in hospital with the virus. Last week, the figure was 1,026, and today it is 998. In that time, the number of people in intensive care has also fallen—from 94 to 65.

Given that case numbers continue to fall, we hope and expect that the number of people in hospital will decline further and that the rate of decline will pick up pace. We also expect and very much hope that the number of people dying from Covid will reduce, given the reduction in cases in recent weeks.

All of that is positive and I am sure that it is a great relief to all of us. However, the number of people in hospital with Covid is still higher now than it was in late August. The pressure on our national health service remains intense. NHS staff continue to deal with the combined challenge of caring for significant numbers of Covid patients, preparing for wider winter pressures and dealing with the backlog of care that has built up during the pandemic months.

As we head further into autumn and then winter, we know that people will meet indoors more often or travel by public transport rather than walk, for example, which will create the conditions for the virus to circulate. There is a risk that that will lead to a further rise in cases over the winter, which would put further pressure on the NHS.

For all the improvement that we have seen and collectively helped to achieve, at least until we are well through the winter, we must remember that the overall position remains fragile and potentially very challenging. That is why we continue to stress the importance of taking basic precautions, such as having good ventilation, wearing face coverings and keeping a safe distance from others if possible.

It is vital that we all continue to be mindful of the virus and its likely presence around us as we go about our everyday lives and, in light of that, that we continue to behave in sensible ways that reduce Covid’s ability to spread from person to person. Notwithstanding the welcome fact that we are all living lives that are much more normal than was the case this time last year or even earlier this year, if we all continue to take the sensible precautions, we will stand a much better chance of keeping under control the number of cases and the associated pressure on the NHS, even as winter conditions kick in.

I will briefly cover two further issues. The first is international travel. Proportionate travel restrictions will continue to be an important baseline measure to protect against Covid. They help to reduce the risk of people coming into Scotland with the virus and they help us to identify quickly any new variants of the virus. However, just as we have worked hard to get domestic life back to normal as much as possible, so too do we want—in an appropriately careful way—to bring greater normality back to international travel.

Yesterday, the arrangements for international travel changed in Scotland and across the UK. The green and amber lists have now been merged, which means that there are now only two categories of country: those on the so-called red list, which are, of course, the highest-risk countries at any given time, and all other countries.

Passengers who are travelling from countries that are not on the red list and who can show that they have been fully vaccinated or who are under the age of 18 no longer need to provide proof of a negative test result before they travel to Scotland. In addition, 18 countries, including Canada, Australia and New Zealand, have been added to the list of countries whose vaccination programmes are recognised for the purposes of travel to the UK.

It is important to note that despite the change of position on pre-departure testing, at this stage there is still a requirement for passengers to take a Covid test on the second day after their arrival here. That test must meet very high sensitivity standards, which means that in practice it is likely to be a polymerase chain reaction test. We are working with the UK Government on possible future changes to the position on post-arrival testing, but for now it remains the case that people arriving in Scotland from outside the UK must take a PCR—or equivalent—test on day 2 after their arrival here.

We will continue to work with the UK Government, the other devolved Governments and the travel sector to ensure that the position on international travel is proportionate in helping us to guard against new variants and, as far as possible, consistent across the four nations of the UK.

The final issue that I want to cover today is the Covid vaccination certification scheme. The scheme came into force, as planned, at 5 am on Friday 1 October, although, as I set out last week, the enforcement provisions will not come into effect until 18 October.

I am grateful to all the businesses, organisations and individuals who are working to implement the scheme. The app, which we can opt to use to show evidence of our vaccination status, became available for download last Thursday afternoon. I am well aware that initially many people found it extremely difficult to use the app. In particular, many people found that the app was unable to locate their vaccination record from the information that they provided. The problem was especially acute over Thursday evening and Friday, which caused extreme frustration for users who wanted to download the app as quickly as possible, and for businesses and events organisers who were planning to test their certification arrangements over the weekend. I apologise for that.

The problem was not with the app itself but with the NHS systems to which it links. Essentially, the high level of demand after the launch of the app, combined with an error in one part of the NHS system, meant that information was not being sent quickly enough from the NHS system to the app. For a period, that also caused problems for people who were requesting paper copies of vaccination certificates or who were seeking to download a certificate in portable document format.

However, improvements to remedy the problem were made to the NHS system on Friday evening. I can report that the initial backlog of people who were waiting for their information to be matched had been cleared by Saturday lunchtime. We will continue to monitor the performance of the app.

We will also continue to engage with businesses and sectors that are subject to the requirement for Covid vaccination certification. For example, in relation to football fixtures that were held last weekend, although they had agreed that no fan would be turned away if they were unable to provide evidence of their vaccination status, both Heart of Midlothian Football Club and Rangers Football Club tested their certification arrangements and managed to check about 20 per cent of their crowds. Yesterday, Scottish Government officials met those clubs, together with Aberdeen Football Club, Celtic Football Club, Hibernian Football Club and the managers of Hampden Park stadium to consider and learn lessons from those weekend experiences. We are also continuing to engage with the other sectors that are required to implement certification.

In the Scottish Government’s view, Covid vaccination certification remains a proportionate way of encouraging people to get vaccinated and of helping large events and night-time hospitality to keep operating during a potentially difficult winter. The scheme is now operational, and the provisions are in place that require businesses to keep data safe and to use it only for certification.

People are now able to access and use the proof that is required. In addition to getting the app, as many people now have been able to do, it is also possible to download a PDF or to order a paper copy of a vaccination record from the NHS Inform website. Those will continue to be options for anyone who is not willing or able to use the app.

As indicated last week, the first two weeks of the scheme will, in effect, be a grace period in relation to enforcement, while businesses and users become accustomed to the new rules.

However, during that period, we expect businesses to implement and test their approach to certification and to prepare compliance plans so that they are fully prepared by 18 October. At that point, the regulations will become enforceable by local authority officers. As has been the case throughout the pandemic, those officers will use what is called the four Es approach. They will engage, explain, encourage and then, only if those options are exhausted, enforce. In fact, their engagement work has already started. In the days and weeks ahead, the Scottish Government will also continue to engage with businesses that are subject to the certification scheme; I remain grateful to them for everything that they are doing to help to ensure that it works effectively.

My final point is addressed to individuals, rather than to businesses. At some point in the coming months, many of us will want to attend a concert, go to a big football or rugby match, or visit a nightclub or other late-night venue. Therefore, I encourage everyone to get a copy of their vaccination record as soon as they can, either through the app, or by getting a PDF or paper copy from NHS Inform. I know that the early experience of the app was not good, but it works well now, and the alternative options continue to be available.

Overall, the position that we are in now is much better than we feared it might be, this time last month. In the past four weeks, cases have more than halved, and the number of people in hospital and intensive care is also now starting to decline. The efforts that have been made by so many people, over the past month in particular, to step up compliance with mitigations and to drive up vaccination rates seem to be working. However, as we head into autumn and winter, we have no room for complacency. Case numbers are still high—each week, hundreds of people are being admitted to hospital with Covid—and the NHS is still under pressure. We must seek to maintain the progress of the past few weeks, and we all have a part to play in doing so.

As usual, I will close with a reminder of the three things that we can all do to help to protect one other. First, please get vaccinated if you are eligible and have not yet done so. That remains the most important thing that anybody can do.

Secondly, please test regularly with lateral flow devices. They can be ordered through the NHS Inform website, or collected from a local test site or pharmacy. If you test positive, or are identified as a close contact or have symptoms, please self-isolate and book a PCR test.

Thirdly, please comply with the mitigations that are still in place. Wear face coverings in indoor public places such as shops, on public transport and when moving about in hospitality settings. Wash your hands and surfaces thoroughly and regularly. Meet outdoors if you can, although we know that doing so is getting increasingly difficult.

When you meet indoors, open windows if you can, and try to keep a safe distance from people from other households. All those precautions still really matter—we can see that from the data that are being reported each day. Taking those precautions will help to protect you, other people and, crucially, our national health service.

I ask everybody to stick with it, in order to get case numbers down even further.

We recognise the clinical reality that someone who has recently had Covid may continue to test positive for some time and that, depending on the rules in the countries to which they are travelling, that could prevent them from travelling. People therefore need to check the entry requirements of the countries that they are planning to visit before arranging a trip.

We consider on an on-going basis what we can do to ease the difficulties that are being caused by such issues. However, it is simply one of the features of Covid that people have to think about when they make decisions about travelling or, indeed, doing things here.

We absolutely intend that those tests will remain free of charge. They are an important part of our protection against Covid. Emma Harper is right in saying that a significant number of people who contract Covid will not display symptoms, and certainly not in the early part of their period of infection. That is why lateral flow tests are so important.

Our advice is to take a lateral flow test twice a week. In addition, I advise people to do that before they go somewhere or, if they forget to do it once or twice a week, definitely to do it if they are due to visit somebody or to go to a particular event. The other part of the advice is that anyone with a positive lateral flow test result should book a PCR test to get confirmation of that result and should, of course, isolate immediately.

It is really important that we continue to do these things over the winter. If we all follow all of that advice, we have the best chance of keeping cases on a downward track.

We have addressed the fact that not everybody will have a driving licence or passport and that, therefore, not everybody will be able to use the app. That is why we intend to continue to offer people the alternatives of ordering a paper copy of their vaccination status or downloading a PDF file—not just for a few days, but throughout this. Both of those things can be done without using the app at all. It is important that those alternatives are there and that people are aware of them.

We have guidance in place for the sectors that are required to do Covid vaccination certification. As I said last week, and as I have said again today, the reason why we left the two-week gap between the introduction of the scheme and the enforcement provisions coming into force was to allow for testing and for the guidance to be properly applied and understood by the businesses that are required to undertake that.

I accept the point that Alex Cole-Hamilton made about public confidence, which is why the early experience of the app was deeply regrettable. However, it was also important for us to quickly rectify that and continue to take steps to ensure that we monitor and rectify any issues that arise.

After 18 months of the pandemic, I do not think that the public particularly wants there to be any restrictions in place. However, equally, from the interaction that I have had with people, it is my view that there is a pragmatic understanding on the part of the majority of the public that we cannot simply bury our heads in the sand over the virus as we go into winter and, if we want to live as normally as possible while keeping the virus under control, we have to accept some compromises. In my experience, most people accept Covid vaccination certification. Actually, in some of the media coverage on Thursday and into Friday, the people who were doing interviews and vox pops were pragmatic about the acceptance of showing vaccination status as an alternative to some of the more restrictive options.

None of us wants to be in this position. I wish—possibly more than most in the chamber—that we could just wash our hands of the virus and stop having to consider any of this or having to deal with the headaches and teething problems with the things that we have to introduce. We are doing this to try to get through the winter with Covid kept under control and the economy and our lives operating as normally as possible. Is that easy every single day for anybody? No, it is not, but I am afraid that it is essential while the virus continues to circulate.

We are taking a range of steps—as we have been for some time now—to encourage people to use lateral flow devices, ideally twice a week. There are particular groups that we give particular advice to, such as pupils and staff in secondary schools. Every time that I stand here, I remind people about the importance of using lateral flow devices. The importance of lateral flow device testing has featured in a lot of our marketing and advertising campaigns around Covid, and we will continue to encourage people to use those tests.

It stands to reason that, when cases rise, people are understandably more anxious and are possibly more likely to use the tests more and that, when cases fall again, there might be a tendency to fall away from doing that. That is why it is important for me, the Government and all of us to send the message that people should not drop their guard as cases continue to fall. It is still important that we do all of the things that we have been doing in order to prevent cases rising again, and testing ourselves with lateral flow devices is one important way of doing that.

The announcement of the £25 million fund to support small businesses to enhance ventilation—I think that we made that announcement at the end of September—has been warmly welcomed by a number of stakeholders, including the Federation of Small Businesses. Since making that announcement, we have been working with delivery partners, as I indicated that we would, to take forward the next steps. We recognise the importance of that work as we enter the winter months, when it might be less practical for businesses to keep windows and vents open.

We will set out further details of the grant and funding scheme and, of course, we will report on uptake and spend, as we have done for previous funding streams for businesses.

Before I address all the questions that Douglas Ross has asked, I will pick up one of the points that he made. If he thinks that the four Es is a new approach, the only question that that begs is this: where has he been for the past 18 months? The police and environmental health officers have been using that approach day in, day out in relation to all the regulations that have been in place. He might just want to haver reflected a little bit on that before he poses his questions.

I will now deal with the substantive points. It is the case that we now have an extremely positive trend in terms of cases and all the associated impacts on hospital admissions, occupancy and intensive care that flow from Covid cases, and I hope that we will start to see a reduction in the number of people dying. That is really positive.

When I was standing here a month or even three weeks ago, I would not have been entirely confident that we would be in this position. I understand that people will look at the situation and ask why we need any mitigations or restrictions to keep cases under control. That is not an illegitimate question, but the answer is very clear. We do not know—no country does—what pressure we will be under from Covid this coming winter.

This will not be the first winter that we have lived through this pandemic, but it will be the first winter in which Covid will be circulating and there will be no lockdown restrictions in place in terms of our everyday lives. I wish that this was not necessary but, in my view, it is prudent to have in place proportionate steps to give us the best possible chance of keeping cases under control—so that we do not have a health impact or people losing their lives or more pressure on the national health service—while keeping our economy fully open and trading.

That is why we are asking people to continue to wear face coverings and to do all the other basic things that are really tedious for everybody but still important. It is also why we consider—we are far from the only country in this position—that Covid certification has a part to play. We think it important to have that in place over the winter months.

Last week, the app did not work as we intended; there is no point in my trying to say anything different. I have tried to set out as clearly as possible the technical reasons for that. The situation is deeply regrettable. In essence, the issue was the linkage between the app and the NHS systems, and action has been taken to address and resolve that.

When we are in a position to do so, we will publish data around the app—the downloads, including the numbers of successful QR code downloads. However, the figure that we have—we rely on Google and Apple for some of the download information—is that, as of midnight on 3 October, almost 380,000 people had downloaded the app. We will continue to monitor the data and we will publish information as soon as we are in a position to do that robustly.

We will continue to make sure that we have those proportionate mitigations in place, because of what might happen if we do not. I reflect again on a point that I made last week: if I cast my mind back over these statements, going back probably for months now, almost every mitigation that we have put forward to try to keep cases under control has been opposed by Douglas Ross and the Conservatives. We are not in a position of being able to do nothing in the face of the virus over the winter, so we seek to do the most proportionate things possible. That is the action that we will continue to take.