Chamber and committees

Our deposit return scheme, which is the first in the United Kingdom, will increase recycling, cut litter by a third and help to meet Scotland’s climate targets. Among the most environmentally ambitious and accessible schemes anywhere in Europe, it will include online deliveries and tens of thousands of return points for plastic, metal and glass containers.

It is disappointing that, due to the impact of Covid and Brexit on businesses and of the United Kingdom Government’s decision to charge VAT on deposits, delivery this year it is not possible. I have full confidence in the steps that industry is taking to deliver DRS, including work that is being done through Circularity Scotland. I look forward to seeing significant progress in the course of this year, including signed contracts to deliver infrastructure and logistics work beginning on counting centres.

Douglas Ross is shouting, “Chopping the bottom off of doors.” [Interruption.] In trying to improve ventilation in a room, a number of things need to be done. Partly, it can be about air filtration to purify the air; partly, it is about ventilation and mechanical ventilation systems. [Interruption.] However, it is also partly—

The key point is that it is partly about taking measures to ensure that the natural flow of air in a room is maximised. If doors or windows are not enabling that natural flow of air in the way that is wanted, it strikes me as basic common sense to take measures to rectify that. Therefore, we have given additional money to local authorities to allow them to take whatever steps are needed—air filtration systems, mechanical ventilation or basic rectification of the structure of classrooms—to improve the natural flow of air. That strikes me as basic common sense. If Douglas Ross wants to have serious discussions about these matters, perhaps he could start by making sure that it is a grown-up discussion.

First, our schools are fit for use, thanks to the dedication of teachers and other school staff. Thanks to the sacrifices of young people and their parents, we have managed to keep our schools open during some of the most challenging phases of the pandemic. That is a credit to everybody in our education system.

The Scottish Government continues to take a range of measures to ensure that children and staff working in schools are as safe as it is possible for them to be. One of those measures is, of course, one that Douglas Ross, against all logic and most expert evidence, opposes. That is asking staff and pupils in our secondary schools to wear face coverings. It is a basic mitigation.

On the issue of ventilation—

I wonder whether it ever crosses the minds of the Conservatives that case numbers are down, the number of hospitalisations is down and the number of people in intensive care is reducing at least in part because of some of the protective measures that we are taking, not in spite of them. Without those protective measures, we might not have been in as relatively positive a position as we are in now.

Did the member listen to anything that was reported today? Case numbers are down compared with the numbers at the turn of the year, and we are in a much stronger position than we might have been in, partly because of such measures, but the immediate future trends remain uncertain. In the past week, case numbers have begun to rise again. I reported on a subvariant that might be more transmissible. There are reasons to be very optimistic and confident, but common sense and experience tell us that there are also reasons to be cautious if we want to avoid setbacks.

The Conservatives have opposed virtually every protective measure that we have introduced. If we had not introduced them, no doubt they would have said that we should have done. The opportunism and the opposition for the sake of opposition speak rather badly of the Conservatives. For my part, I will just get on with taking the best decisions that we can to keep driving and steering the country through the pandemic as safely as we can.

—but we will continue to ensure that Parliament is fully consulted and that we continue to seek the right balance on this.

These are important issues, and it is important that everybody treats them seriously and responsibly. I am sure that most people—if not all people—across the chamber will do so.

I thank Bill Kidd for his question. I will ask the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care to write to him to set out in full detail the answer to his question.

In general terms, the Covid certification scheme allows people who have been fully vaccinated to evidence that if they need to do so. If someone has received a Covid vaccine outwith Scotland, they can upload their QR code as proof of vaccination in that country to the Scottish vaccination record through NHS Inform. Where a QR code is not available, alternative evidence can be provided to the local health board.

In addition, work is under way to include booster information with the automatic transfer of information between Scotland and England, and that will allow individuals to receive a combined fully vaccinated status, which will serve both domestic and travel purposes.

That is the broad situation in general terms, but I am aware that Bill Kidd asked for some particular details, so I will ask the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care to write to him in a way that addresses any of the points that this general answer has not.

He said that the figures show that the virus is under control. I then accepted that he did not say that the pandemic is over, but the air that he gives is that that is what he wants us to think.

I narrated a situation that, because of the sensible, proportionate measures that have been taken, is much better than it would have been, and experts and other countries across the world are all of the view, or many of them are of the view, that continued caution in the face of the risks and uncertainties is the best way to see us get through the remainder of the pandemic.

Douglas Ross asks me why it is that adults can go to the pub without wearing a face mask—I remind him that we are asking adults who go to the pub to wear face coverings as they move about in hospitality—but children have to wear one in school. Let me point out a couple of important differences. First, adults have a choice about going to the pub and mixing with other people. Children do not have a choice about going to school and mixing with other people. Secondly, children are still less vaccinated than adults, because the vaccination of children was recommended by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation at a much later stage. Those are all the reasons why it is right to continue to take a precautionary approach to the protection of children.

In another context, one of Douglas Ross’s members—I think last week, when the Parliament was talking about exams—had the question posed to her, “Don’t you think the safety of children is the most important thing?” Her answer was, “No, I don’t.” That seems to sum up the attitude of the Conservatives.

We will continue, in line with the views of the advisory council that gives us expert opinion on these things, to take that cautious approach. Interestingly, it was last week, I think, that Douglas Ross quoted the chair of the National Parent Forum of Scotland at me. She said that it would be sensible to have a phased approach to the lifting of restrictions.

On the point about the bill, the Coronavirus (Recovery and Reform) (Scotland) Bill will bring public health protection powers in Scotland into line with public health protection powers that have been in place in England, under a Conservative Government, for the past 10 years. Douglas Ross calls the powers “dangerous”. Perhaps that is not a surprise, coming from the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, because one of the powers in the bill is to give continued protection to tenants. Here is what the homelessness charity Crisis said about that in the consultation:

“These protections can give private tenants more time and support to work through rent arrears and we welcome plans to make them permanent.”

Perhaps it is not a surprise that the leader of the Conservative Party describes that as “dangerous”.

Obviously, I have concerns about that. I would be surprised if not every member in the chamber shares those concerns. There is very little public trust remaining in the integrity and decision making of the Prime Minister and his Government over those matters.

The Sue Gray report that was published yesterday was obviously heavily constrained in terms of what it was able to say. However, what it did say in its conclusions, which were narrated by Evelyn Tweed, was very clear. It is also now impossible to reach any conclusion other than that the Prime Minister has seriously and serially misled the House of Commons.

It is always important that what people such as me and the Prime Minister say in the chambers of Parliament can be trusted—I, myself, have had cause over the past year or so to reflect very carefully on such things. That is never more important than it is during times of crisis such as we are living through. I suspect that my views on these matters are shared by members across the chamber and—more important—by the vast majority of people across the country.

Today, I will give a further update on the levels of and trends in Covid infections. I will also confirm that, when Cabinet reviewed Covid protections this morning—as we are required to do every three weeks—our decision was to keep in place the remaining baseline measures for now.

I will then give brief updates on guidance for schools and early years settings; on the BA.2 subvariant of omicron, which is currently under investigation; and on vaccination. I will conclude with a reminder of the basic steps that are still important to take to help curb transmission and reduce pressure on the national health service, the economy and wider society.

First, though, today’s statistics: 7,565 positive cases were reported yesterday through polymerase chain reaction and lateral flow tests; 1,177 people are in hospital with Covid, which is 30 fewer than yesterday; and 42 people are in intensive care, which is three fewer than yesterday. That figure includes 13 patients who have been in intensive care units for more than 28 days. Sadly, a further 30 deaths have been reported, taking the total number of deaths under the daily definition to 10,341. Once again, my condolences go to everyone mourning a loved one.

The most recent data continues to give grounds for optimism. The situation that we are in now is much less severe than we had thought it might be. That said, case numbers remain high and the significant fall seen in the first three weeks of January has now levelled off somewhat. Last week, I reported that the number of new cases had fallen by just over a quarter in the previous 7 days. This week, cases have risen, albeit very slightly, from more than 7,200 new cases a day to just under 7,400, which is an increase of 2 per cent.

The picture across different age groups is mixed. The biggest increase in the past week, of 7 per cent, was in the under-15s. However, that is significantly lower than the 41 per cent rise in that age group that was recorded in the previous week. That may well—indeed, I hope it does—indicate that the impact of the return to school after the Christmas break is beginning to tail off. Cases also increased last week, by 5 per cent, among 25 to 44-year-olds, which is likely to reflect infections among children now feeding through into that age group, many of whom are parents or carers. Case numbers are still falling in all other age groups, although they are falling more slowly now than was the case 7 days ago.

Although it is not as up to date as our daily case numbers, the weekly survey data from the Office for National Statistics is another important measure of infection levels. It shows that, in the week to 22 January, the percentage of people in Scotland infected with the virus declined to around one in 30 from around one in 20 in the previous week. Those figures are consistent with the trends in the daily data for that period in January.

There is a further point about the daily data that I want to highlight. Right now, someone who is reinfected with Covid does not count as a new case in the statistical reports. If, for example, you received a positive PCR result yesterday, you will not be included as one of the new cases reported today if you had also tested positive on a previous occasion. As of yesterday, reinfections are being reported by the United Kingdom Government in the daily figures for England. That means that, for a short period, the daily case numbers for England will not be directly comparable with those for Scotland. However, that will be temporary, as Public Health Scotland is also planning to report on reinfections. I can confirm that initial data will be included in the PHS weekly report tomorrow, and that data on reinfections will be included in daily case figures from later this month. That data on reinfections obviously becomes more important as the pandemic progresses and more people get Covid for a second time. That said, it is important to stress that, as things stand, the current daily figures capture the significant majority of people who test positive each day.

To return to the most recent data, the decline in cases in the first three weeks of January is now reflected in a fall in the number of people being admitted to hospital. In the week to 21 January, 768 patients with Covid were admitted. In the following week, that was down to 602. Hospital occupancy has also fallen. This time last week, 1,394 patients with Covid were in hospital; today, the figure stands at 1,177. The number of people with Covid in intensive care has also reduced—from 49 this time last week to 42 today.

Those improving trends are a result of booster vaccination, the proportionate measures introduced in December and the willingness of the public to adapt their behaviour to stem transmission. That has enabled us, over the past two weeks, to remove virtually all of the additional measures that were introduced in December. Most recently, as of yesterday, guidance on home working was updated to enable a partial return to the office, with hybrid working where appropriate. From the end of next week—11 February—the requirements for overseas travel will also be eased. Fully vaccinated travellers will no longer need to take a test on their arrival in Scotland.

The return to much greater normality is very welcome for individuals, households and businesses across the country. However, common sense, coupled with the strong desire that all of us feel not to go backwards, demands continued caution.

The national health service remains under acute pressure. As I reported a moment ago, the number of people in hospital with Covid is falling, but it is still double what it was just before Christmas. As I also reported earlier, the recent fall in the number of cases is now levelling off. As often happens when protective measures that have helped to stem transmission are lifted, the number of cases might start to rise again, exacerbating the already significant pressure on the NHS.

That is why the Cabinet took the decision this morning to retain, for at least a further three weeks, the current baseline measures. Those are the Covid certification scheme, the requirement to collect customer contact details in settings such as hospitality, the requirement to wear face coverings in many indoor public places and on public transport, and the requirement for businesses and service providers to have regard to guidance and to take all reasonably practicable steps to minimise the incidence and spread of infection on their premises. We will continue to ask the public to take lateral flow tests before mixing with people from other households.

Complying with those basic protective measures will, I hope, help to stem infections and therefore relieve pressure on the NHS, while allowing us all to get back to living much more normally.

There are three further issues that I want to touch on today. The first is to briefly update the Parliament on the subtype of omicron known as BA.2, which was recently designated as a variant under investigation.

As members will recall, with the main omicron variant, what is called the S gene is absent in PCR tests. However, in BA.2 cases, the S gene shows up. In the past week, the proportion of PCR tests with an S-gene dropout, which indicates the main omicron variant, has declined, with a corresponding increase in the proportion of tests showing S-gene positive results. That could be accounted for by delta cases, which also show positive S gene results. However, it might also indicate increasing transmission of the BA.2 subvariant. Genomic sequencing is being used to investigate that further.

I can confirm that, in Scotland, 26 cases of BA.2 have been confirmed through genomic sequencing so far, but we expect that number to increase as more sequencing results are reported. Given that not all tests can be genomically sequenced, the number will be an underestimate of the presence of the subvariant here.

It is important to stress that, at this stage, there is no evidence that BA.2 causes more severe disease than the main omicron variant, nor is there any evidence at this stage that BA.2 has any greater ability to escape the immunity that is conferred by vaccination or previous infection. However, BA.2 appears to have the ability to outrun the main omicron variant, which might indicate that it is more transmissible. Investigations into that are on-going in the UK and other countries such as Denmark, where the subvariant has been circulating for longer.

At the moment, therefore, the BA.2 subvariant is not a cause for any alarm or to change our approach, but it warrants further study. It is a reminder that the course of this pandemic—of any pandemic—remains uncertain, so, even as we get back to normal life, we must take care and remain vigilant. We must remember that, as this is a global pandemic, developments in other countries will impact on our ability to control the virus here, which underlines the vital importance of extending the protection of vaccination to all countries as quickly as possible.

The advisory subgroup on education met last week to review Covid measures in schools and early learning and childcare settings. I confirm that, in the light of its recommendations, revised guidance is being published today, which effectively returns schools and early years settings to the situation before the emergence of omicron. The revised guidance eases requirements for bubbles or groupings in schools, and it is less restrictive in its advice on school trips and on visitors to schools.

The subgroup considered the issue of face coverings last week. It concluded that, although we might be close, assuming that current trends continue, to the time when face coverings no longer need to be worn in classrooms, we have not yet reached that stage. No one wants young people to have to wear face coverings in the classroom for a moment longer than necessary but, given the current uncertainty about infection trends in the immediate future and the relatively high levels of Covid in younger age groups, continued caution is prudent at this stage. The subgroup will consider the issue of face coverings again at its meeting on 8 February.

The final point that I want to cover relates to Covid and flu vaccination. In December, flu vaccination was paused for some groups to allow priority to be given to the delivery of Covid booster jags. However, flu vaccinations have now resumed for higher risk groups such as the over-65s. Uptake in those groups was already high in December but, if you are in one of those groups and have not yet had your flu vaccination, the NHS Inform website will provide details of how to arrange it in your local health board area.

Covid vaccination has now started for five to 11-year-olds at the highest clinical risk and for those five to 11-year-olds who are household contacts of someone who is immunosuppressed. Parents and carers of children in those groups will receive a letter or phone call about vaccination soon. Some will have received that already.

In addition, invitations are now being sent to all 18 to 59-year-olds who are eligible for the booster but have not yet had it. Approximately 580,000 people are in that category. Invitations to scheduled appointments are being sent in blue envelopes, with the first appointments scheduled from Monday onwards. So, if you have not had a booster yet but are eligible for one, please look out for the blue envelope and go along to your scheduled appointment. If the appointment time you are given is not convenient, you can rearrange it to a more convenient time.

This is an important point: for anyone who has had only two vaccinations, protection against serious illness from Covid wanes significantly over time. The booster is a vital—in fact, essential—way of maintaining that protection. So please, get boosted. It is the best way to protect yourself from serious illness and to protect the NHS.

We can continue to be optimistic as we look ahead to spring. Case levels are likely to remain high for some time and may increase further as a result of the recent easing of protections, but there are good grounds at this stage for confidence that we are again entering a calmer phase of the pandemic.

Our revised strategic framework will be published after the February recess. It will set out in some detail our approach to managing Covid more sustainably in the remaining phases of the pandemic and as, hopefully, the virus becomes endemic. Between now and then, we will continue to engage on the contents of the framework and Parliament will get the opportunity to debate and vote on it.

For the moment, I will close with the steps that we can all continue taking to protect ourselves and others, while we return to more normal lives.

First, get fully vaccinated as soon as you can.

Secondly, continue taking care when out and about socialising. In particular, take a lateral flow test every time before meeting other people socially, and remember to take the test as soon as possible before you go out, rather than several hours before.

Finally, please take the other precautions that we know make a difference. Keep windows open if you are meeting indoors. Wear a face covering on public transport, in shops and when moving about in hospitality. Talk to your employer about a return to hybrid working and follow the guidance and precautions that they adopt to make your workplace safe. Follow all the advice on hygiene.

Those measures are making a difference. They will help us to protect the NHS and get it back to normal and they are enabling us to keep each other safe, even while other protections are lifted. So please, stick with them. I again thank everyone across the country who is doing exactly that.