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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 14 July 2025
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Displaying 1690 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

Does risk diminish the appetite for change? Does taking a risk with differential tax policies inhibit behaviour?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

I have another small question. Mention has been made of demographics and the anticipated reduction in immigration. I appreciate that Alasdair Smith said that the demographic situation had much bigger implications than the reduction in immigration, but from your modelling, do you have any sense of the reduction in tax take from the reduction in immigration? I think that Dame Susan Rice mentioned a figure of 50,000. What does that cost the Government in tax take? I do not know whether you model that or whether you just have basic numbers. I am not sure who would be best placed to answer that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

A lot of the levers that you might choose to use reside at UK level. Those include macroeconomic policy, a bunch of taxes, borrowing—which Scotland cannot do—and immigration. When you look at the current Scottish budget, is it your assessment that the Scottish Government is doing the best that it can with fairly limited fiscal levers? I do not want to put words in your mouth—I am not trying to do that. You can put your own words to it. I am asking the question because this committee and the Economy and Fair Work Committee have consistently agreed that, post-2008 and post-Covid, radical policy choices are required, yet this meeting has brought out the limitations on the Scottish Government when it comes to macroeconomic policy and levers.

This links back to the idea of asking what I would be doing if this were me. No matter what I thought of, we cannot do it. We cannot do any of the radical things that I thought of. You are both experts and I am merely a committee member. I would appreciate your thoughts.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

If you are looking for optimism, you have possibly come to the wrong place, convener.

We have covered an awful lot of what I wanted to explore. Sometimes, politicians play the game of thinking, “If it were me, what would I do?” I have been thinking about lots of things. For example, we could make all of Scotland a free trade zone but, oh no, we cannot do that. We could attract lots more entrepreneurs into Scotland, to go back to the digital line, but, oh no, we cannot do that. We could pick up on George Osborne’s old phrase about the “march of the makers” but, as the convener pointed out, there has been a 9.7 per cent cut in capital expenditure.

Having said that, I accept Graeme Roy’s comments about public sector consolidation and focusing on key sectors and the move away from oil and gas. One thing that this session has been very good for is looking at the wider perspective. Graeme Roy talked about structural issues. I do not think that we have talked about those enough in the committee. How are the structural issues in the UK economy holding Scotland back? I fully accept that there are structural issues in the Scottish economy but, looking at the macro picture, how are UK structural issues holding Scotland back?

I am looking at you, Graeme.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

My last wee question is about behavioural elements. You talk about the Scottish Parliament taking a risk. If I was running a business, there is no way that I would run it in this way. How does that affect behaviour? That is probably my last question before the convener closes me down, and rightly so.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

I am trying to work out the cost to the tax take of the Scottish Government of the reduction of up to 50,000 immigrants. I do not know anything about the nature of how much tax they paid or whether you would average it. I want to get a sense of the cost of that in budgetary terms.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

I have one last wee question.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

There will be economic outcomes, so the two are linked.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

Good morning. I want to go right back to where we started, Professor Breedon. I could not quite hear your answer on what, specifically, was contained within the £620 million other income. I heard “spillovers” and “underspends”, but I could not hear what you said.

What estimates have you included and at what levels? I suspect that we will also want to probe the Scottish Government about what is included in that amount. If you do not mind, I ask you to run through that. In particular, I am also interested in whether and how you have factored the health and social care levy into your projections and whether you estimate that the Scottish Government has done the same. I understand that the Treasury says that the levy is in the figures, but I do not have a tangible sense of at what level in the budget.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Michelle Thomson

I sense that you are laughing. I apologise if that was an unfair question but we will follow it up with the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy. My understanding is that the UK Treasury says that the health and social care levy is included in Barnett consequentials but we do not have a sense of the exact amount. Is that correct and is it the assumption that you make?