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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 3 September 2025
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Displaying 2904 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

Okay. Despite my knowledge of statistics, I am struggling at this point to get all those percentages, but I get the general point.

I know that you cannot go into the political side but, from the technical side, if, as you have all suggested, things are becoming more volatile—or, at least, we have more risk because Scotland now has more responsibility for a whole range of things—is there a technical argument that the £600 million or £700 million reserve should be increased? Can you answer that without going into the political space?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

If it comes down, that is good, but if it goes up, that is a problem. That leads me on to Professor Breedon’s comment that larger negative or positive reconciliations could become more likely. I read in paragraph 3.22 on page 25 of the fiscal update about the

“24 per cent chance of a negative reconciliation exceeding £600 million”.

Will you explain that to me a little bit? Is that just a random statistical thing?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

But there might be something about front-line services.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

We have found it difficult to forecast social security exactly. Is that just because it is new? Will it calm down and be easier to forecast in future?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

We have covered quite a lot of ground already. We have talked about the potential £2.6 billion gap, but, perhaps more urgently, the forecast for 2027-28 is an £851 million negative reconciliation, which would be over our borrowing limit. Do you have any thoughts on how we will address that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

I certainly share your hope that the figure will reduce.

I discussed this issue with the Scottish Fiscal Commission in the previous evidence session. You have already said that you have asked for a review of the fiscal framework, and what we have been talking about emphasises the point that, as the Scottish budget has increased, the £700 million reserve and the £600-odd million borrowing limit have not increased proportionately, which concerns me quite a lot. It is all very well increasing them by inflation, but our responsibilities have increased by a lot more than inflation.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

Thank you very much. I want to ask about capital expenditure. You mention in the strategy that you

“are currently exploring the use of revenue finance models”.

Can you expand on what that means?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

No, that is good. I shall leave it at that, convener.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

The convener touched on quite a number of issues. I will go back to one or two of them, particularly the potential £851 million negative reconciliation in 2027-28.

I accept that the situation is uncertain. In the past, we have been warned about bad news but things have then improved. Does that mean that I can be relaxed about that figure? If not, what will the Government have to do? If the figure is £851 million, do we do nothing this year but, when we come to the 2027-28 budget, there will have to be a reduction?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

We now have responsibility for social security, which is a more volatile thing.