Chamber and committees

Good morning. I am a wee bit stunned by the diversity in the responses, which go from quoting the OBR talking about a 15 per cent drop in trade intensity over the long term, which is absolutely astonishing if you think about the impact on the economy, to a statement that Brexit has not really moved the dial. I find it hard to reconcile those two different views.

My specific question is the balance of payments, which is something we used to agonise over. I appreciate that this information may not be readily to hand for the panel members, but the balance of payments for the UK has been massively negative over a long period, although Scotland’s balance of payments has—notionally, I suppose—been positive, with exports exceeding imports over a long period. Are any members of the panel aware of how that might have changed as a result of Brexit? I imagine, for example, that if there is any data on Northern Ireland, that would have seen an improvement given its special status, but I am just guessing.

Before I bring Professor Portes in, I note in response to what Mr Buckley has just said that the vast majority of the evidence that the committee has heard has veered towards identifying disastrous effects. People have said that they stopped trading with the EU immediately. An example is small seafood producers. Some businesses have outsourced to parts of the EU and others have had to go through parts of the EU in order to continue. On the point about the lack of data, as a former economy secretary in Scotland, I note that it is very difficult to get information about Scotland from UK sources. The information is very often not disaggregated and it is often based just on surveys.

I appreciate that it is difficult, but my question was about the balance of payments. Professor Portes, can you say anything about what the balance of payments was before Brexit over the longer term and what it might be now? I realise that it is difficult, but is there any way in which you can disaggregate that to different parts of the UK?

I will bring in our last witness. Professor, on that point, you said that, even with the best will in the world, the information is not available. There is no will to look at the information on exactly the point that you made. What are Scotland’s exports? We can think about whisky and oil, but oil comes ashore, it gets sold in the Netherlands and it is apportioned to the UK. There is a lot of clarity on fiscal transfers but very little on what goes out of Scotland. I ask the last professor to wind up on that, if possible.

Will Neil Bibby give way?

I will just finish this point. Some have said that we should have a referendum—somebody even said that the Liberal Democrats were the first to propose a referendum. I think that we should have a referendum. Nothing is more guaranteed in this life than that Scotland will one day join the EU, and that the UK will rejoin the EU. Everyone knows the benefits of doing so, but they do not want to talk about it yet, because they are scared of political consequences. However, it will happen, and the sooner we do it, the less damage Brexit will have caused. If he still wants to intervene, I will give way to Mr Kerr.

That is a consequence of the deal that the Tories did, so it is back to the Conservatives. The FSB has said that that has been very damaging and very serious for businesses.

The other point about the EU and EU membership is the one that Patrick Harvie made: the biggest achievement of the EU was peace in Europe. If people want to know the value of peace, which people do not appreciate until they have war, they should go to Ukraine and ask people there about the value of peace. That is why the EU won the Nobel prize.

One day, Scotland will rejoin the EU, and I am sure that the UK will follow thereafter.

I will, if Mr Carson can be brief.

Would the member not consider, given all that he has heard and what the report says, that Brexit is not done? People are paying for it day in, day out and week in, week out. Businesses are losing money, we are losing trade and exports are being lost. Brexit is far from done. Can he not see that from the report?

I return to the point that I was trying to make to Neil Bibby. We heard from Stephen Kerr that Brexit was done, but, somewhat awkwardly, he had to admit that the leg that required border controls for coming into this country had not been implemented. Those two things do not sit side by side. I am not asking for the Labour Government’s view, but what is Martin Whitfield’s view about when those measures should be introduced?

I will repeat what the seafood industry has said. Salmon Scotland has reported a £100 million loss in the value of exports to the EU since 2019. I was about to mention the NFUS, which has made it clear that the

“consequence for growers has been immediate and grave”.

Although we welcome the committee’s support for securing a derogation for Scottish seed potatoes, we cannot afford to see other sectors face similar fates.

As we have heard, the situation in Northern Ireland provides a stark contrast. The benefits that Scotland would have had as an independent and English-speaking member of the EU were huge at the point of Brexit. Instead, that value has gone to Ireland and, to some extent, to Northern Ireland, which, like Scotland, voted to remain part of the EU. At the committee has heard, Scottish businesses are watching Northern Ireland as it uses its unique status to attract investment and trade that we can no longer access under the TCA. That unequal treatment only strengthens the case for Scotland to chart its own course.

In a previous inquiry, the committee heard how Brexit has decimated the music industry in Scotland and the rest of the UK because people are unable to participate in festivals across the EU.

In its recent manifesto, the Labour Party promised to reset the relationships. That is a step in the right direction, but—let us be honest—tweaking the TCA will never bring us back to the frictionless trade that we once enjoyed. The only way to truly restore Scotland’s prosperity is through rejoining the single market.

Stephen Kerr said that it was not a hard Brexit. I remember Daniel Hannan and Boris Johnson saying that they were not going to touch the single market—that it was not about the single market—but they lied, because they eventually did exactly that. They took the hard Brexit that they said they would not take. I think that some people need to research and understand what free markets are about. In the 1980s, Margaret Thatcher said that the single European market would be the best thing ever for the UK, which view seems to have been turned on its head by the current crop of Conservatives.

A single market works only if it has regulation and measures that prevent it from going out of control. To find the Labour Party, to some extent, and the Conservatives trying to deny the reality of the damage that Brexit is causing is unbelievable. It has been disastrous for our economy, and our businesses deserve better. We hear parties say that they are champions for small businesses, but they are willing to turn a blind eye to the billions that are being lost by our businesses since Brexit.

It is clear from the report that Scotland’s interests are best served by being part of that European family. If the UK Government is unwilling to listen to the calls for a better trading relationship, it is up to the people of Scotland. We had a discussion—