Chamber and committees

Modelling undertaken by Sheffield University looked at how alcohol consumption in Scotland changed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the longer-term implications over 20 years of these changes for public health. This found that on average, people in Scotland who were drinking within the UK low-risk drinking guidelines of 14 units/week reduced their alcohol intake in 2020, while those drinking above the guidelines increased their drinking by an average of 2 units/week.

The modelling then explored 4 illustrative scenarios for how these changes in drinking persisted, or not, from 2022 onwards and compared these to drinking having remained at pre-pandemic levels throughout. In the best-case scenario where it was assumed that alcohol consumption reverts to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, it was estimated there would be an additional 663 deaths, 8,653 hospital admissions, 22,122 years of life lost and £10.9million in NHS hospital costs over 20 years. Where it was assumed that consumption changes during the pandemic would persist in the long-term, it was estimated there would be an additional 7,924 deaths, 91,332 admissions, 239,002 years of life lost and £111.2million in hospital costs over 20 years.

This harmful health impact of the pandemic on alcohol-related outcomes was estimated to fall disproportionately on the most deprived groups, further increasing existing inequalities in health.

The Public Health Scotland (PHS) evaluation into the impacts of Minimum Unit Pricing found the largest estimated reductions in deaths and hospital admissions, during the study period that were wholly attributable to alcohol consumption were seen in men and those living in the 40% most deprived areas.

• The evaluation found the largest estimated reductions in deaths and hospital admissions, during the study period that were wholly attributable to alcohol consumption were seen in men and those living in the 40% most deprived areas