Question reference: S6W-16527
- Asked by: Alexander Stewart, MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
- Date lodged: 30 March 2023
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Current status: Answered by Neil Gray on 20 April 2023
Question
To ask the Scottish Government what its response is to the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s Fiscal Sustainability Report, published in March 2023, in which it projects that Scotland's GDP will grow "by an average of 1.2 per cent each year between 2027-28 and 2072-73, 0.4 percentage points lower on average than the OBR's March 2022 projections show for UK GDP growth", and what its assessment is of any effect that this may have on Scotland’s economic competitiveness with the rest of the UK.
Answer
The Scottish Fiscal Commission’s Fiscal Sustainability Report sets out that the projection of lower GDP growth in Scotland than the UK is primarily due to demographic change, with Scotland’s population aged 16-64 projected to fall by 16 per cent over the next 50 years, compared to a fall of 2 per cent for the UK.
This presents a risk to Scotland’s long term economic competitiveness and while the challenges of an ageing population are not unique to Scotland, Scotland lacks the full range of powers to deal with these in the way that other countries can, in particular with the UK Government’s current immigration system failing to meet the needs of Scotland’s communities in addressing both labour market and demographic challenges. In the short term, the Scottish Government is using the powers it has to address Scotland’s population challenges and in 2023 the Ministerial Population Taskforce will launch a new Talent Attraction and Migration Service for Scotland, and an Addressing Depopulation Action Plan will be published.
Furthermore, the National Strategy for Economic Transformation sets out the action the Scottish Government is taking to deliver a wellbeing economy which will increase productivity and international competitiveness, and deliver fairer, greener prosperity for all Scotland’s people and places.