CO concentration – 800,000 years 2 o 1.2 C Today (422 ppm) 400 ) 1990 m 350 pp( n 1960 oita 300 rtn 1850 ecno 250 C 2OC 200 150 Source Thousands of years ago Scripps Institution of Oceonography The path to Net Zero Scotland Scotland’s 2021 emissions Land use, 1% Waste, 4% Electricity supply, 4% Transport, 28% Agriculture, 19% Buildings, 22% Industry, 23% Source NAEI (2021); CCC analysis. 5 Scotland’s progress Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in Scotland 20 Buildings (temp adjusted) Transport 15 e Industry 2 OCt 10 M Buildings Agriculture 5 Electricity supply 0 Waste Land use -51990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source ONS (2021); NAEI (2021); CCC analysis 6 Looking forward Emissions under the Climate Change Act 2020 target achieved due to pandemic, 2021 annual target missed again 70 -20% Emissions (1990-2021 inventory) 60 -30% 0991 50 -40% ot 2021 emissions (GHG Account) de -50% r 40 e a 2 p O m -60% C o t c 30 M n Annual targets oi -70% tcu 20 de -80% R 10 Interim targets -90% 0 -100% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 8 2030 goal – looking back 9 years and forward 9 years Scotland’s rate of emissions reduction (excluding shipping and aviation) -3.5% per year -9.3% per year 9 2030 goal – looking back 9 years and forward 9 years Scotland’s rate of emissions reduction (excluding electricity generation, shipping and aviation) -1% per year -8.9% per year 10 2030 goal – looking back 9 years and forward 9 years Scotland’s rate of emissions reduction under the Scottish Government pathway 2012-2021 Electricity supply 2021-2030 Transport Industry Waste Buildings (temp adjusted) Agriculture Engineered removals Land use -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 Change in emissions per year (MtCO₂e) 11 CCC pathway for Scottish emissions Scottish Parliament’s chosen 2030 target is now beyond what is credible 40% 50% Updated pathway sle 60% vel 09 70% 91 mo 80% rf Legislated interim targets Legislated interim noit targets 90% cuder 100% snoiss 110% i Recommended annual targets Annual targets mE 120% 130% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source CCC analysis. 12 CCC pathway for Scottish emissions Scottish Parliament’s chosen 2030 target is now beyond what is credible 40% 50% CCC Pathway for Scotland Updated pathway sle 60% vel 09 70% 91 mo 80% rf Legislated interim targets Legislated interim noit targets 90% cuder 100% snoiss 110% i Recommended annual targets Annual targets mE 120% 130% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source CCC analysis. 13 The danger of distraction UK path to Net Zero North Sea Gas Production Projections, September 2023 0.5 yad rep 0.4 tnelaviu 0.3 qe lio fo sl 0.2 errab Production without development noil of any new fields li 0.1 M -0.0 Source North Sea Transition Authority UK path to Net Zero North Sea Gas Production Projections, September 2023 0.5 yad rep 0.4 tnelaviu 0.3 qe Production from development of li undeveloped discoveries o fo sl 0.2 errab Production without development noil of any new fields li 0.1 M -0.0 Source North Sea Transition Authority UK path to Net Zero North Sea Gas Production Projections, September 2023 0.5 yad r Production from development of e future discoveries p 0.4 tnelaviu 0.3 qe Production from development of li undeveloped discoveries o fo sl 0.2 errab Production without development noil of any new fields li 0.1 M -0.0 Source North Sea Transition Authority www.theccc.org.uk @theCCCuk 18
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