I will shortly confirm the different levels of protection to be applied across Scotland from Monday and will briefly explain some of the reasoning behind those decisions. A detailed analysis paper is also being published, which sets out our assessment of each of the five factors and our overall judgment for each local authority area.
First, I will give an update on today’s Covid statistics. The total number of positive cases reported yesterday was 1,128. That represents 7.1 per cent of total tests and takes the total number of cases to 61,531. Of the new cases, 416 were in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 266 in Lanarkshire, 121 in Ayrshire and Arran, and 117 in Lothian. The remaining cases were spread across nine other health board areas; only Shetland reported no new cases. I can also confirm that 1,152 people are in hospital, which is an increase of 35 from yesterday, and that 86 people are in intensive care, which is one more than yesterday.
I deeply regret to say that in the last 24 hours, a further 37 deaths have been registered of patients who first tested positive during the previous 28 days. That means that the total number of deaths, under the measure used in our daily figures, is now 2,791. Once again, I send my deepest condolences to all those who have lost a loved one to this illness.
Those figures show that we are still seeing high numbers of new cases, increasing hospital and intensive care unit admissions and, sadly, a rising number of deaths.
Those issues are not unique to Scotland. We have seen a resurgence in the virus in all parts of the United Kingdom, across Europe and right around the world. Last night, for example, both France and Germany reimposed nationwide lockdowns.
In Scotland, we acted early—with some difficult but necessary measures—and we hope that that will have the effect of slowing the spread and preventing a further deterioration in our position. Although we cannot be certain and have no grounds for complacency, we see some encouraging signs that that might be the case. Last week, I indicated that we were beginning to see a significant slowing in the rate at which new cases are increasing. I can confirm that that has continued. Cases in the last week up to today have increased by 4 per cent; two weeks ago, the weekly increase was 40 per cent. Our latest estimate of the R number, which was published today, suggests that it is still above one but may have fallen slightly to 1.3.
All of that suggests that the measures that were introduced five weeks ago to curb household meetings are having an effect and that the additional measures that were introduced three weeks ago to significantly restrict hospitality may also be starting to have an impact. That is all down to the sacrifices of people the length and breadth of the country.
However, we must be under no illusions. Europe is now firmly in the grip of a second wave of Covid. Cases here at home are still rising—albeit that the rate of growth appears to be slowing—and the virus is still highly infectious. It will take every opportunity to spread. Therefore, unless we act individually and collectively to protect and build on the progress that we see today, that progress will quickly go into reverse.
Our strategic framework aims to tackle the virus with measures that are strong enough to work but also proportionate to the scale of the problem in different parts of the country, and in a way that minimises as far as possible the other harms that the pandemic is causing.
The assessment of what level of protection is right for each local authority is broadly based on five key factors. Those are: the number of positive cases per hundred thousand people over the most recent week; the percentage of positive tests; our forecast for new cases in the weeks ahead; and the capacity of local hospitals and intensive care facilities.
Those factors are assessed alongside the views of local public health officials and with consideration of local circumstances, such as specific outbreaks, travel and work patterns, and the extent to which health services are provided by neighbouring health boards. Our final decisions are based on all those factors.
Before setting out our decisions, I want to take a moment to remind people of the purpose of each level. The baseline level—zero—and level 1 are intended to ensure as much normality as possible, but do not remove all restrictions. The protections that are in place at those levels should enable communities to control outbreaks quickly and effectively and minimise transmission of the virus by following the guidance and supporting one another to comply.
However, when we begin to see community transmission in an area, and when the spread of the virus cannot be linked to a specific outbreak, we must apply the brakes. That is essentially what levels 2 and 3 are designed to do.
Our aim is that the restrictions—especially in level 3—should be in place for as short a time as possible. If any area is at level 3, the collective aim of those who live there, the local authority, local health services and local businesses must be to bring that down to level 2 and then level 1, and not to allow it to drift to level 4. We will use level 4 when transmission is extremely high and threatens the capacity of the national health service to cope.
I turn now to the levels that will apply across the country from Monday at 6 am. I point out that, following this initial assessment, we will review on a weekly basis whether any changes are required. We aim to confirm our decisions to Parliament on a Tuesday, with changes coming into force on the following Friday. Barring the need for any changes before then, our next update will therefore be Tuesday 10 November, with any changes coming into effect on 13 November.
Before turning to today’s decisions, I remind everyone that you can see on the Scottish Government’s website the reasoning behind those decisions, as well as the level that your own area is in and what restrictions that entails for the area where you live.
Given the fragile situation that we face and the fact that we are migrating to the new system for the first time, we are taking a deliberately cautious approach today. At present, we do not judge it safe or prudent to place any part of the country into the baseline level, zero. However, if we see continued progress, I hope that that might change—and will change—in the weeks ahead.
I can confirm that Highland, Moray, the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland have all been assessed as level 1. In time—a short time, I hope—we expect that level 1 will allow people to meet in one another’s homes, in groups of up to six people from a maximum of two households. However, at present and on clear public health advice, the restriction on household meetings will continue to apply in all parts of the country.
I am conscious that that restriction can cause particular difficulty in our more rural and island communities, so we will review its necessity in level 1 areas ahead of the 10 November review. If the virus remains controlled in those areas, I am hopeful that we will be able to lift the restriction then.
Let me now address the areas that have been assessed as level 2. They are Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen, Fife, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, Argyll and Bute and also—as I will discuss in more detail—Perth and Kinross and Angus.
In two of those cases—the Borders and Argyll and Bute—the decision on whether they should be assessed as level 1 or level 2 was finely balanced. In both cases, one of the key factors in reaching our decision was the interconnection with neighbouring areas, and in particular with health services in Lothian and in Greater Glasgow and Clyde. We have also considered the impact of travel from nearby areas with a higher prevalence of Covid. As a result, we have decided to take a cautious approach by applying level 2 to both areas. We will, however, consider that decision very carefully at the next review point.
The interconnection with neighbouring areas and services has also heavily influenced our decision on Inverclyde. I understand why that area would wish to be assessed as level 2. However, we do not consider it safe to take that decision yet, given the very close connections between Inverclyde and other parts of west central Scotland that have high transmission rates, high positivity levels and already significant pressure on hospital and intensive care unit capacity. Inverclyde has therefore been assessed as level 3, along with East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire and the City of Glasgow. That level also includes South Ayrshire, East Ayrshire and North Ayrshire, Stirling, Falkirk, Clackmannanshire, the City of Edinburgh, Midlothian, West Lothian and East Lothian.
We know that those areas in level 3 have been under restrictions now for a number of weeks, particularly on household interaction. Based on the data that we are considering and if progress in suppressing the virus is maintained, we hope that at a very early review point, we will be able to consider moving some areas—East Lothian in particular and possibly Edinburgh—from level 3 to level 2 reasonably soon. I cannot make that commitment now, but I hope that we will be able to confirm it in the coming weeks.
Our approach to managing Covid will work best where there is real partnership work between neighbouring authorities and health boards on how to drive down levels of infection, share resources, and communicate with and support communities.
I indicated earlier this week that we had cause for concern in relation to Dundee and that we expected it to move into level 3. Dundee is currently seeing, per week, around 185 new cases per 100,000 of the population, which is higher than for several areas already in the equivalent of level 3. We have therefore decided that a level 3 assessment for Dundee is the correct one, so from Monday at 6 am Dundee will move into level 3.
Support is available for businesses that will be required to close and all businesses across Scotland will have access to the replacement job support scheme from the UK Government, which begins on Monday. I would encourage all businesses in Dundee that are impacted by the closure and those in the supply chain to engage with Dundee City Council and to look at the findbusinesssupport.gov.scot website to find out what help is available. In fact, businesses across the country can access that resource.
In making that decision on Dundee, we considered carefully whether Perth and Kinross and Angus should also be placed in level 3, given the travel patterns and interdependencies between those three authorities. Our decision not to do so at this stage is based on the view of the three authorities, NHS Tayside and the police that close partnership working can militate against cross-border transmission. However, people living in Angus and in Perth and Kinross have a big part to play. It will be essential for them to adhere strictly to the guidance and the restrictions, especially on travel, if a rise in cases that would necessitate level 3 restrictions being applied across all of Tayside is to be avoided.
I turn to the situation in Lanarkshire. The decision between level 3 and level 4 there has been very finely balanced. Lanarkshire has a high number of cases, high test positivity and a high number of patients in hospital and ICU. However, there is evidence in recent days that the situation is stabilising, which is undoubtedly down to the compliance and sacrifices of local people. The local councils, NHS Lanarkshire and the police believe that they have strong partnership plans in place to maintain that progress under current restrictions. For those reasons—and given the severity of level 4 restrictions—we have decided that North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire should remain in level 3 at present.
However, I want to be very clear that that is a borderline decision that we require to keep under review, not just weekly but on a daily basis. I therefore appeal to people across Lanarkshire to continue to play their part. Please abide strictly with all the rules and guidance to help ensure that the rise in cases continues to slow and that more severe restrictions can be avoided.
Finally, I turn to travel, and here I need to be very blunt. I know that travel restrictions are unwelcome and can be controversial, but they are an absolutely essential part of any regional approach to tackling Covid. They are, unfortunately, a price that we pay for more targeted restrictions. If people do not abide by the travel advice, the virus will spread from high to lower-prevalence areas and a differentiated approach will become unsustainable. In those circumstances, we would have to return to national restrictions.
I will be clear what we are asking of people at this stage. If you live in a level 3 council area or, in future, a level 4 area, please do not travel outside the council area that you live in, unless you require to do so for essential reasons. If you live in a level 1 or 2 local authority area, you must not travel into a level 3 or 4 area, except for essential purposes. By essential purposes, we mean things like work—if you cannot work from home—education, local outdoor exercise, healthcare or caring responsibilities and essential shopping, where that is not possible locally. In recent weeks, that guidance has applied to health board areas, but from Monday it will apply at local authority level. Similarly, wherever people live, they should not travel between Scotland and areas in the rest of the UK with high levels of the virus, unless it is essential.
Given that the police cannot check everyone’s journey, we must rely on public willingness to adhere. That is why the advice is in guidance at this stage and not regulation, but we will keep that under review. However, I appeal to people across the country: please comply with this advice to keep everyone safe and allow us to continue, if possible, with a proportionate response across different parts of the country to wider restrictions.
The levels that we will put in place from Monday require more sacrifice at a time when all of us are tired of making sacrifices. I recognise that and, again, I thank everyone across Scotland for everything that they are doing. However, those sacrifices continue to be essential. If we all dig in and stick with it, this proportionate approach has a real chance of being sustainable and keeping Covid under control over the winter. If we succeed, we open the prospect—in all parts of the country—of being able to lead slightly less restricted lives in, I hope, the reasonably near future.
However, the other side of that is equally true, and I must be open with Parliament and the country about this. We are, as of now, making progress in Scotland, but cases are still rising and the situation that we face is fragile; across Europe, the pandemic is accelerating so I cannot rule out a move back to nationwide restrictions in the next few weeks, including at level 4. That could happen if, for example, cases in parts of the country start to rise faster again, to the extent that controlling spread with travel restrictions will not be effective; or it could happen if pressure on the NHS risks breaching capacity not just at local level, but overall.
We want to avoid that, obviously. However, to achieve that, we must all play our part. The Government must and will lead, but all of us have individual agency and individual responsibility. None of us can guarantee that we will not get or transmit the virus, but we can all make choices that keep ourselves, our loved ones and our communities safer. I ask people to make sure that they know the restrictions in their local area, please. From Monday, a postcode checker will help everyone to do that. Please stick to the restrictions.
Wherever people live, for now, do not visit other people’s houses and do not travel to or from level 3 areas. Please remember to wear face coverings; avoid places with crowds of people; clean your hands and surfaces; keep 2m distance from people in other households; and self-isolate and get tested immediately if you have Covid symptoms.
If we do those things, we have a chance of keeping the virus under control in our neighbourhoods and our communities. We can reduce overall case levels in our own areas and help to do so across the country. Then we can all play a part in moving all parts of Scotland to lower levels of restrictions. Above all, we can protect each other, protect our national health service and save lives.