Good morning. I am grateful for the opportunity to be with you this morning. I know that you are all acutely aware that we are now six months into this country’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. We have asked a very great deal of people who live in Scotland, requiring them to follow measures that deviate from previous habits and change their way of life, and I cannot repeat often enough my heartfelt thanks to people in Scotland who have helped to reduce the spread of the virus and have saved lives as a consequence. However, as we move into autumn, we are seeing an upsurge in cases of transmission—as the Deputy First Minister has just said, the R number is our indicator of spread—providing us with a very short timeframe in which to take action.
As you have heard—and as you said, convener—on 22 September, the First Minister announced a new set of restrictions to protect the population from the spread of Covid-19. There have been difficult decisions to make throughout the response to the pandemic, and the decisions on 22 September were no different. We see the new measures as necessary actions to prevent a resurgence in community transmission of the virus and remove the potential for a rapid return to the pressures that we experienced early in the year. As you know, the new measures focus on there being no household visits and a 10 pm closing time for hospitality.
As in every decision, many factors are at play. Our response to the pandemic is informed by clinical and public health advice, which ensures that the health of the population takes priority. However, we are conscious of the harm that lockdown can do to the economy—in particular, to the hospitality industry and, importantly, to the mental wellbeing of the wider population. That is why, as we make decisions, we try, as far as we can, to balance the protection of life and the care of those who are most at risk from harm from the virus with fairness and quality of life.
On the basis of the analysis by Public Health Scotland and the chief statistician, we took a decision at a pivotal point in the upsurge of transmission to reintroduce those measures. We also looked beyond Scotland’s borders when modelling our work and taking on evidence. A review of international experience, following the first wave, showed us that countries that implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions earlier had lower levels of hospitalisations and deaths than those that delayed.
The shape of the epidemic curve in Scotland has followed a similar trajectory to that in France, with a lag of about four weeks. France is now experiencing an increase in hospital and intensive care unit admissions—a position that we want to avoid as far as we can. On that basis, the package of further measures to reduce transmission was introduced as an early intervention. As the Deputy First Minister has said in relation to the four-harms approach, those measures are given careful and close consideration. They are undertaken in collaboration with the chief medical officer’s advisory group, informed by contributions from the Covid-19 national incident management team, the Covid strategic insights group and our Government’s senior clinical and policy leads.
Our previous experience of the virus has shown that it can spread quickly from one person to a much larger number of people over a very short period of time. That is why we took the decision to apply the restrictions at a national level rather than take a regionalised approach. For communities and local authorities in Scotland’s Highlands and Islands, that decision was understandably met with questions. I understand their frustration with the approach and their desire to protect local businesses. However, despite their natural barrier to transmission, there have still been cases of infections in those island communities following the initial lockdown that we had earlier in the year. Special exceptions based on geographical location would need to come with and be balanced by travel restrictions, in this instance, to and from the islands. The health risks and the challenges posed to the economy and local businesses in those communities were carefully considered and, on balance, we decided to implement national measures applicable to every part of Scotland.
As the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport, my priority is to protect and improve the health and wellbeing of the people of Scotland. Supported by clinical advice, I believe that these new measures enable us to do that in a collective effort as we continue to deal with the pandemic.
I am grateful for the opportunity to make those short opening remarks, and, as always, I am happy to answer questions.