We have been looking at the backlog in some detail. When the Government put out the initial discussion paper, the thinking was that the backlog would be about 1,600 trials by August. Concerns were raised about whether that was an accurate figure and what it was based on.
Once we went into the lockdown period, there was initially a drop in police reports coming through, sometimes by as much as 25 per cent. Over the past weeks, we have seen the level returning to what might be classed as business as normal, before Covid.
Custodies have also dropped to a remarkably low level—about 25 per cent of normal levels—but yesterday we had 296 custodies, compared with 349 on the same day last year, so business levels are now pretty much back to where we would expect them to be. We have had pretty high business levels over the past few years, particularly in solemn cases, which have been slowly increasing.
The predicted backlog of 1,600 cases was certainly realistic three or four weeks ago. If anything, we predict now that the number will be higher. We reckon that the sheriff court and High Court backlog will probably be just over 1,800 by August, and we expect that it will potentially exceed 3,000 by March 2021.
Our basic issue, which is really difficult to get a handle on, is the extent to which we expect social distancing to be in place, and its timeframe. With social distancing in place, our court capacity will be cut to a third of what it currently is. For example, we would routinely have 16 High Court trials running nearly every day of the week. In a socially distanced environment, we will, at best, get five High Court trials running. Our capacity to put trials through is already significantly reduced. If we have challenges with jurors’ nervousness, and we are working between three courts rather than in one, that could impede progress and could make things worse.
Realistically, we think that the backlog is what we expected, and that it will increase significantly as we go through this year. We reckon that, by August, the High Court will have 750 cases awaiting trial. Because we are having to reduce the number of courts from 16 to five, we anticipate that the number of cases might increase to about 1,200 by the end of March. If social distancing stays in place in some form over the next year, the number could increase to around 1,700 cases. Even assuming that social distancing ends at that stage, we could still have, in two years, a backlog of approaching 2,000 outstanding High Court trials.
Those figures are incredibly high, but they are indicative of the world that we are living in. Currently, the Crown is indicting about 90 cases per month in the High Court, and about 400 a month in the sheriff and jury courts. The number of cases that are coming into the pipeline is not reducing by any extent. If we are saying that that pipeline will get narrower because we can have only five High Court trial cases rather than 16, the delays will become quite significant.
Options are currently being discussed. It is fair to say that they will, at best, marginally slow the increase in the backlog. They will not reduce it or have any real impact on it. The major thing that will allow the backlog to be addressed will be a reduction in social distancing. At that stage, there will be more staff and judges in order to deal with cases faster. The things that are currently being discussed are not solutions, and they will certainly not impact on the backlog in the short term, the medium term or the long term. They might marginally slow accumulation of cases.
The figures are not scaremongering. [Temporary loss of sound.] Over the next number of years, things have to be based on reality. It is not about rushing into it; it is about accepting that, where we are—[Temporary loss of sound.]