After today, there are only 19 sitting days in this Parliament before the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union. Meeting the legislative pressures of a possible no-deal Brexit has been challenging, and I acknowledge the flexibility and diligence that this Parliament, its committees and their conveners have demonstrated in carrying out their scrutiny role. However, it is clear that there is a substantial backlog of Brexit legislation at Westminster. To date, only 73 of the 115 UK statutory instruments to which we have consented have been laid in the UK Parliament. No one to whom I have spoken in recent weeks, with the exception of the Prime Minister, believes that Westminster can complete the work that it has to finish on Brexit preparations in the time that is available.
Accordingly, the Scottish Government believes that it is essential that two things happen at the earliest possible date. First, the Prime Minister must seek an extension to the article 50 process, no matter what other tasks she has set herself. That is essential even in legislative terms, let alone in economic and political terms. Secondly, she or the House of Commons must take formal legal steps to rule out exiting with no deal, which would reduce the pressure on businesses and individuals as well as on the Parliaments of these islands.
In December, this Parliament voted decisively against the Prime Minister’s EU withdrawal deal, and for very good reasons. Her deal would make Scotland poorer, place us at a serious competitive disadvantage and, combined with the UK Government’s hostile immigration policy, make a fall in Scotland’s working, tax-paying population inevitable. In addition, the proposed deal provides no certainty. It would mean years of difficult negotiations with no guarantee that a trade deal could, in the end, be achieved.
Last week, incredibly, the Prime Minister seemed to agree with us, voting against her own deal by backing the Brady amendment that sought “alternatives” to the backstop—a backstop that she negotiated and alternatives that she and her colleagues, including the ever-flexible Secretary of State for Scotland, just two weeks ago said did not exist. By the way, they still do not.
The Prime Minister’s deal is not the solution to this problem; it is the problem. It represents the inevitable outcome of ill-conceived red lines, and it is those red lines that need to change.
Alternatives are possible. In fact, they are absolutely essential, and they are available. In 2016, the Scottish Government set out compromise plans that would keep both Scotland and the UK in the single market. Now, with the clock ticking down to exit day, the Scottish Government is working with others to try to obtain an extension to article 50 to avoid a catastrophic no-deal outcome and to allow time for a second referendum on EU membership.
However, as a responsible Government, we must act to minimise and mitigate the impact of a possible no-deal outcome in Scotland. We will do everything that we can in that regard, although I repeat the caveat that I added when I last updated the chamber about the matter: we cannot do everything.
Extensive preparation has been under way for some time, but, in the first weeks of this year, we have been steadily intensifying that work. Under the leadership of the Deputy First Minister and reporting to the First Minister, the Scottish Government’s resilience committee continues to provide a clear co-ordinating structure, with the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, civil contingencies responders and Police Scotland participating in those arrangements alongside senior civil servants and cabinet secretaries. The resilience committee will meet again later today and next week, during the recess. The Cabinet will also meet during the recess to hear a further update, as we are now preparing for the potential need to operate those arrangements on a permanent basis in the event of a no-deal outcome and to activate public communications.
In recent weeks, I have also attended two special UK Government ministerial meetings that have considered no-deal planning, and we continue to engage on those matters with the UK Government at the highest levels. On Monday, the Deputy First Minister will attend another UK Cabinet sub-committee on EU exit.
The Scottish resilience partnership is co-ordinating work across Scotland to ensure that local resilience partnerships are fully engaged in planning, mitigation and the preparation of arrangements in response to any of the civil contingency issues arising out of EU exit. A national EU exit civil contingencies plan is being developed on a multiagency basis, which will be tested and exercised shortly.
A no-deal Brexit would have the potential to generate a significant economic shock that could tip the Scottish economy into recession—potentially a deep one. It would also have a severe impact on the labour market, potentially resulting in job losses, business relocations and closures, underemployment and a reduction in recruitment. The small and medium-sized enterprise sector would likely be worst hit. Alongside the UK Government, we are trying to rectify that situation, and we would support measures to ensure that there is increased liquidity in the banking system should it be required. As part of our support for business, the prepare for Brexit campaign offers practical advice that can help to safeguard, as much as possible in the circumstances, a company’s growth and that of the Scottish economy.
On transport, it remains our aim to secure the best flow of essential goods into Scotland, and we are concerned about the possibility of severe delays to freight traffic through Dover and the Channel tunnel. We are working with the Department for Transport to establish the extent to which its contingency plans are addressing Scotland’s needs for critical goods and, in particular, how rurality can be factored into supply chain issues. Given my constituency experience, I am especially conscious of the position of the Scottish islands, and I discussed some of the issues when I was in Orkney earlier this week. Transport Scotland is working with transport providers and with ports and airports in Scotland to assess their existing capacity and to identify how they could mitigate disruption and ensure that Scotland’s exporters continue to get their goods to market.
Uncertainty about future tariff arrangements provides another key demonstration of the potentially damaging consequences of a no-deal Brexit. Studies by the British Retail Consortium and others suggest that, in the absence of a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, reversion to World Trade Organization tariffs for imports and exports could lead to significant price increases, particularly for food and drink. The governor of the Bank of England has identified potential rises of 5 and 10 per cent. Our red meat industry and seafood sector would be severely impacted by punitive tariffs. The seafood sector would also be required to comply with a range of additional administrative burdens, the support for which does not currently exist.
We are seeking urgent clarity on updated UK Government technical advice on protected food names. The UK Government failed to consult us on—or even inform us of—the updated notice yesterday. The UK Government states that current protection holders—for example, Scottish salmon, beef and lamb—might need to reapply to the EU for protection in Europe and in other countries where there is mutual recognition.
It has long been clear that leaving the EU under any circumstances would have a negative impact on the health and social care sector. If the free movement of people was curtailed, that would have serious consequences for the recruitment and retention of health and social care workers.
On medicines, the Scottish Government is working with all other UK Administrations to make sure that patients get the medicines and other medical supplies that they need, as far as is possible. Many of the practical issues connected to medicine supply, such as entry and custom controls, are outwith devolved competency, but we continue to raise specific concerns directly with the Department of Health and Social Care. In addition, last week, the Scottish Government’s chief pharmaceutical officer wrote to pharmacists and other health professionals, providing information and advice. One particular point that is being emphasised is that it is important that patients take a careful view, discuss issues with their general practitioner and pharmacist and do not rush to increase their own supplies.
A no-deal Brexit would also raise concerns in areas such as the supply of medical devices, clinical trials, access to future EU funding and the rights of Scottish citizens to secure state-provided healthcare across the EU. National health service boards in Scotland are taking forward their own planning to mitigate that situation, with Scottish Government support.
If there was a no-deal outcome, we would be denied access to many of the security and law enforcement co-operation measures that Police Scotland and the Crown Office use daily to keep people safe. We would lose membership of Europol, the use of the European arrest warrant and access to vital information-sharing arrangements. That would represent a significant downgrading of our policing and security capability at a time when cross-border crime and security threats are increasing. As the chief constable outlined to the Justice Sub-committee on Policing last week, Police Scotland is working closely with the Scottish Government to make extensive preparations for the loss of those measures. It is also making arrangements to ensure that officers are available for, and are trained for, civil contingencies demands and for mutual aid requests. Police Scotland has today announced plans to put 360 officers on standby from mid-March to deal with any incidents that might arise across the country, such as disruption at ports.
Across the Scottish Government, we are aligning our existing financial and staff resources towards those areas with specific no-deal impacts, and we are ensuring that we have the right people with the right skills in the right places to respond quickly and effectively.
Across the public sector, resources are being directed to essential preparations. A decision to remain in the EU would allow those resources to be returned to the support of front-line services and the delivery of Scotland’s priorities. Our basic principle is this: the Scottish Government believes that any costs relating to EU exit that are incurred by public bodies—be they in Government, local government or the public sector—should not have a detrimental impact on Scotland’s public finances.
In concluding, I turn to communications. The Scottish Government does not intend to replicate the UK approach of publishing a myriad technical notices. Where those affect Scotland or Scottish issues, we are happy to see them distributed, and we have done our best to influence them. We will, however, do all that we can to ensure that the people of Scotland get a clear and consistent message about the work that is being done and what actions they need to take.
We have therefore launched a public information website that provides important advice on issues such as transport, food, medicines and citizens’ rights—it is now available at mygov.scot/euexit. The website will be regularly reviewed and updated to ensure that the latest information is made available. We are co-ordinating our message with the UK Government, where possible, and supplementing its message as we feel necessary. That is the right way forward in terms of resources and clarity.
We should not accept the suggestion that a no-deal Brexit is somehow inevitable; nor should we allow anyone to normalise it. There are elected members of the Conservative Party whose aim seems not to remove no deal as an option but to champion it. Instead of facing them down, the Prime Minister is indulging and pandering to their extreme views. Unless and until the UK Government takes the necessary steps to rule out a no-deal Brexit, the Scottish Government must go on with—and, indeed, intensify—our work to prepare as best we can, although Scotland did not vote for this and should not have to go through it.