I entirely share the views of those who want this situation to come to an end. This has been an appalling period, and it remains full of uncertainty and difficulty. In passing, I note that a study from a group of doctors in England has been published today that shows that the prescribing of antidepressants rose immediately after the referendum. People feel terribly insecure, and it is getting worse.
However, to the people who thought that this would be the moment at which they would feel better, I must say that this is a false dawn. The deal is not one that will do what we and those people want, which is to provide certainty. During the course of this morning, I will argue that the deal actually prolongs uncertainty. I would find it highly surprising if, for example, a transition period that arose out of the deal was concluded within the timescale that the Prime Minister is talking about. Even the timescale that Michel Barnier is talking about, which goes to the end of 2022, is ambitious, given the reality of the EU and how things will move.
We need to understand what the deal is. The deal arises because of the red lines that the Prime Minister has set over a two-and-a-bit-year period. There is a chart, which was originally a slide from task force 50—it has been reproduced all over the place; we reproduced it ourselves in one of the “Scotland’s Place in Europe” papers—that indicates that, if red lines are set, certain things will happen. Setting a red line on no jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice will have certain consequences. Setting a red line on leaving the single market and walking away from the four freedoms will have certain consequences.
The trouble with that is that the consequences arising from those red lines will be very damaging indeed, particularly to Scotland, in particular on the issue of the four freedoms, which are the freedoms of movement, goods, capital and services. There are profound difficulties in relation to the ECJ issue and other issues, which will not be lessened by this deal. The outcomes will be bad for Scotland in the short, medium and long term and there will not be certainty.
My own view—and the view of the Scottish Government—is that this is the moment at which we should work as hard as we can, across parties, to ensure that this deal does not go through and to ensure that there is no no-deal scenario, because that can be done. We can then get ourselves to the stage where we will have a better set of outcomes. That is what we are trying to do.
I was in London on Monday at a deeply unsatisfactory joint ministerial committee meeting. After that, I talked to others. The First Minister was doing the same yesterday. We will continue to talk and indeed, in this Parliament, I am keen to have those discussions. I will be having some of those cross-party discussions later this week.