Just before our summer recess, Parliament gave the Scottish Government a mandate to explore all options to protect Scotland’s relationship with the European Union. Over the summer I updated Parliament in writing on two occasions, and today I will provide further information on our work and priorities, and on how we intend to involve Parliament as we move forward.
Since the referendum, our first priority has been reassurance. That has included seeking to do everything that we can to reassure non-United Kingdom EU citizens who live here in Scotland. It is a disgrace that the UK Government has not yet guaranteed the position of EU citizens, and today I again call on the Prime Minister to do the right thing and stop using human beings as bargaining chips.
We have also taken targeted steps to support and promote economic stability. Last month, I set out a £100 million economic stimulus plan. Yesterday, I announced that a £500 million Scottish growth scheme will form a central part of our programme for government. In taking those steps, we are acting on our obligation to mitigate the immediate effects of the referendum result, and we will continue to do so.
However, we must also be realistic about the long-term consequences of leaving the EU. Those people who are complacently crowing that the sky has not fallen in on the economy would do well to remember that Brexit has not happened yet—it has not even started.
The reality, as every sensible economic commentator recognises, is that leaving the EU will weaken the economy. The damage will be even deeper if, as all the signals suggest, the UK is heading for a hard Brexit, outside the single market as well as outside the EU. Applying the UK Government’s own analysis to Scotland suggests that that could result in our gross domestic product being more than £10 billion lower than it would be if we remained in the EU. The impact of that will be felt on jobs, trade, investment and living standards.
The G20 summit at the weekend was a harsh reminder of the consequences of Brexit. The US made it clear that there would be no preferential treatment for the UK in trade talks, and the Japanese Government set out in detail the potential implications of leaving the single market: a loss of company headquarters, a hit to exports, turmoil in labour markets, damage to financial services, and cuts to research and development investment. There is no doubt that leaving the EU will be an extraordinary, self-inflicted blow to the UK’s competitiveness, which will be compounded if the decision is to leave the single market as well.
That is why it is so essential that we work to retain the benefits of our EU membership. Over the summer, I set out the national interests that are at stake: our democratic and economic interests, our interests in social protection and solidarity, and our interest in influencing the world in which we live. As I said on the morning after the referendum, we are committed to pursuing all possible options to protect those interests. Of course, our ability to fully assess the different options will be constrained until we start to get some clarity on what the UK Government is seeking to achieve.
That is one of the many reasons why, 10 weeks on from the referendum, it is frustrating that the Tories are no further forward in setting out what Brexit actually means. What we have in place of a policy is a meaningless, tautological soundbite. Indeed, the position of the UK Government became even more farcical this week, when the only scrap of substantive detail that David Davis volunteered in his statement to the House of Commons was immediately disavowed by the Prime Minister—a Prime Minister who then, earlier today, was unable or unwilling to answer the simple question: does she want to see the UK stay in the single market, yes or no?
However, as the position of the UK Government takes shape ahead of article 50 being triggered—as surely it must—it is essential that Scotland’s voice is heard. To that end, we have been working hard over the summer in discussions with UK Government officials, and we continue to press for urgent clarification of how the UK will deliver on the Prime Minister’s commitment to full involvement for Scotland. I hope to be able to confirm soon, along with the UK Government and other devolved Governments, how that engagement will work in practice. The Parliament’s approval of the appointment of Michael Russell yesterday ensures that we will have a dedicated minister leading for Scotland in the process. We are also working closely with the other devolved Administrations, the Crown dependencies and the Government of Gibraltar to make common cause where we can.
However, let me be crystal clear about this, and it is a point that I have made directly to the UK Government: the Scottish Government will not be window dressing in a talking shop to allow the UK Government to simply tick a box. We expect to have—along with the other devolved Administrations—a role in decision making and we expect our engagement to be meaningful. That was the commitment given by the Prime Minister, and it is one that I am sure this Parliament expects to see delivered in full. Assuming that it is, we will enter and take part in the discussions in good faith.
The approach that we will take will be exactly as I set out on the morning after the referendum. We will pursue all options to protect Scotland’s interests. First, we will seek to use whatever influence we have to shape the best—more accurately, the least bad—outcome, not just for Scotland but for the whole UK. In my view, that means the UK continuing as a member of the single market. I accept that the Prime Minister has a mandate in England and Wales to leave the EU, but I do not accept that she has a mandate to take any part of the UK out of the single market. Indeed, during the referendum, many leave campaigners said explicitly that leaving the EU did not mean leaving the single market. I hope that all parties in this chamber will back us as we make that case. I also hope that we can make common cause with others of like mind across the UK.
Secondly, regardless of the direction that the UK Government decides to take, we will seek to find ways to protect as best we can Scotland’s place in Europe and our vital national interests and embed them in the UK’s negotiating strategy. Our standing council of experts met for the second time last week and is already working on a spectrum of options to protect what matters most to Scotland and to consider the additional powers that our Parliament would need to make them work. For example, how can we protect the benefits to our businesses of the single market and free movement, and how can we protect workers’ rights, the place of our universities in horizon 2020, the continued ability of our students to participate in Erasmus, and the enhanced security that comes from Europol and the European arrest warrant? As they are developed, we will assess those options against the five key interests that I set out in the summer.
We will update Parliament further on the progress of that work in the coming weeks, and I will appear before the European and External Relations Committee next week. We also intend to propose a series of parliamentary debates over the next few weeks on the implications of Brexit in key areas such as the economy, rural affairs, education and the environment. Those debates will give all members the opportunity to have their say on the issues that the Scottish Government should be prioritising as our discussions with the UK Government develop. I also issue an open invitation to all party leaders today to submit to us their views on options that they think we should propose as part of the process. Mike Russell and his officials will be happy to meet them to discuss any suggestions that they wish to make.
We are determined to do everything and examine every option to protect Scotland’s interests. As I have said before, that must include the option to consider independence if it becomes clear that our interests cannot be protected within the UK. To give up the right to even consider that option would be to accept that we are at the mercy of Westminster decisions no matter how damaging or destructive they are to our economy, our society and our place in the world. That is not a position that anyone with Scotland’s best interests at heart should ever be prepared to accept.
Our focus in the months ahead will be very much on seeking to positively influence the UK’s negotiating position ahead of article 50 being triggered. As we do so, however, we will also continue our work to ensure an awareness and understanding of Scotland’s position across EU institutions and member states. Since the referendum, I have had direct discussions with the Presidents of the EU Commission and the European Parliament, the Taoiseach, the Prime Minister of Malta—who is likely to hold the EU presidency when article 50 is triggered—and the German minister for Europe. I also attended the extraordinary summit of the British-Irish Council at the end of July. In addition, Fiona Hyslop has met the ambassadors of a number of EU member states. Those discussions will continue in the weeks and months ahead.
The circumstances that we now face are not of our making, and they are certainly not of the choosing of most of us in this chamber. The responsibility for uncertainty lies not with those of us who are seeking solutions, but with those who have so recklessly taken us to the brink of EU exit against our will.
However, it is now for all of us to seek to shape the response. The Scottish Government will lead that process but, in doing so, we welcome the support, the contribution and, indeed, the challenge of Parliament. As we continue to consider the best way forward, my assurance is this: our guiding principle will continue to be—at all times—the best interests of the people of Scotland.