Labour Market Update: July 2017
This briefing provides an overview of the Scottish labour market from the latest regional labour market statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Executive Summary
The current unemployment rate in Scotland, of 3.8%, is lowest since comparable records began in 1992. The same can be said of the youth unemployment rate which is now the lowest since comparable records began in 2002 at 8.4%.
The employment rate increased by 0.7% over the quarter in Scotland to 74.1% which is the first time since Sep-Nov 2015 the rate has increased.
Over the year the economic inactivity rate saw the largest increase since 2010.
| Overall | Men | Women | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate | Change over the qtr (% pts) | |
| Unemployment | 3.8% | -0.7 | 4.1% | -0.4 | 3.5% | -1.0 |
| Employment | 74.1% | +0.7 | 77.7% | +0.9 | 70.6% | +0.4 |
| Economic Inactivity | 22.9% | -0.1 | 18.8% | -0.6 | 26.8% | +0.3 |
What are the labour market measurements?
The International Labour Organisation provides the official definition of labour market statistics.
What is unemployment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over without a job who has been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and is available to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of unemployed individuals as a proportion of the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work.
What is employment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over who is undertaking one hour or more a week of paid work.
Rate: Number of people in employment expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
What is economic inactivity?
Level: Any individual aged 16 to 64 who is not in employment, has not looked for work in the last four weeks, and is unable to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of people economically inactive expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
The main reasons for economic inactivity are:
being a student and not having or looking for a job
looking after the family and/or home
being sick (temporary and long-term)
being retired
being discouraged
Unemployment
The number of unemployed people in Scotland fell by 19,000 over the quarter and 46,000 over the year.
The unemployment rate for the UK is 4.5% and has not been lower since 1975. The rate in Scotland sits at 3.8%. This is the lowest unemployment rate since comparable records began in 1992.
Over the year Scotland has seen one of the largest decreases in the unemployment rate since 2001. While the number of people unemployed saw the largest decrease since comparable records began in 1992.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 104 | -19 | -46 | 3.8% | -0.7 | -1.6 |
| UK | 1,495 | -64 | -152 | 4.5% | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Unemployment by gender
Over the year in Scotland, the fall in the unemployment level was primarily due to the decrease in the number of unemployed men, a fall of 32,000.
Over the year the unemployment rate for men in Scotland saw a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to 0.3 for the UK.
In Scotland this is the largest fall since comparable records began in 1993.
The unemployment rates for both men and women have not been this low since comparable records began (in 1992).
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year Change ('000) | Rate | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 58 | -6 | -32 | 4.1% | -0.4 | -2.1 |
| Women | 46 | -13 | -15 | 3.5% | -1.0 | -1.0 | |
| UK | Men | 831 | -24 | -71 | 4.7% | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| Women | 664 | -40 | -81 | 4.2% | -0.3 | -0.6 |
Unemployment by age
The youth unemployment rate in Scotland is now the lowest rates seen since comparable records began in 2002.
The unemployment rat for 25-34 year-olds is also at its lowest since comparable records began.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate | 8.4% | 11.3% |
| Year change (% pts) | -4.5 | -1.0 | |
| 25-34 | Rate | 3.1% | 4.0% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.0 | -0.5 | |
| 35-49 | Rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.9 | -0.2 | |
| 50-64 | Rate | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.8 | -0.4 |
Employment
The number of people aged 16 and over in employment in Scotland increased by 25,000 over the quarter and 44,000 over the year.
The employment rate increased by 0.7% over the quarter in Scotland which is the first time since Sep-Nov 2015 the rate has increased.
The employment rate in Scotland increased by 0.1 percentage points over the year while the UK saw an increase of 0.6 percentage points.
The UK employment rate is the highest since comparable records began in 1971.1
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 2,619 | +25 | -6 | 74.1% | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| UK | 32,010 | +175 | +324 | 74.9% | +0.3 | +0.6 |
Employment by gender
Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both the Scottish and UK levels.
The increase in employment levels over the quarter was mainly due to an extra 15,000 men finding employment.
The employment level in Scotland decreased by 6,000 over the year, as 13,000 women left employment.
The UK saw an overall increase in employment of 324,000 over the year, mainly due to 200,000 women finding work.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 1,349 | +15 | +7 | 77.7% | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Women | 1,270 | +9 | -13 | 70.6% | +0.4 | -0.6 | |
| UK | Men | 16,989 | +68 | +124 | 79.5% | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Women | 15,021 | +107 | +200 | 70.4% | +0.4 | +0.8 |
Employment by age
The employment rate for 16-24 year-olds in Scotland has increased by 1.2 percentage points over the year.
The 1.7 percentage point decrease for 35-49 year-olds is the biggest since 2012 (Jan-Mar 2011 to Jan-Mar 2012: -2.2 percentage points).
It is the fourth consecutive year where there has been a increase in the employment rate for 50 - 64 year-olds with the rate now the highest since comparable records began in 2002.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate | 57.7% | 53.9% |
| Year change (% pts) | +1.2 | +0.2 | |
| 25-34 | Rate | 82.0% | 83.0% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.6 | +0.9 | |
| 35-49 | Rate | 81.8% | 84.1% |
| Year Change (% pts) | -1.7 | +0.5 | |
| 50-64 | Rate | 70.2% | 71.0% |
| Year Change (% pts) | +1.4 | +0.5 |
Economic inactivity
The number of people economically inactive in Scotland decreased by 4,000 over the quarter but increased by 40,000 over the year which is the biggest annual increase since 2010 ( Mar-May 2009 to Mar-May 2010: +48,000)
Over the quarter the economic inactivity rate in Scotland increased by 0.2 percentage points whilst the UK's fell by 0.1.
This is the first time since 2015 there has been a decrease in the economic inactivity rate in Scotland over the quarter ( Jun-Aug 2015 to Sep-Nov 2015: -0.4 percentage points).
Over the year the economic inactivity increased by 1.2 percentage points which is the largest increase since 2010 ( Mar-May 2009 to Mar-May 2010: +1.3 percentage points)
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 782 | -4 | +40 | 22.9% | -0.1 | +1.2 |
| UK | 8,829 | -57 | -55 | 21.5% | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Economic inactivity by gender
Economic inactivity rates are higher for women than for men.
The number of economically inactive people in Scotland decreased over the quarter, despite the increase in economically inactive women.
The increase in the number of economically inactive women over the year is the second highest since comparable record began in 1992.
Despite the fall over the quarter the economic in activity rate for men is the second highest since comparable record began in 1992.
Since 2015 when female inactivity in Scotland was at its lowest (Dec-Feb 2015: 23.9%) the rate has increased by 2.9 percentage points.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 313 | -10 | +16 | 18.8% | -0.6 | +1.0 |
| Women | 468 | +6 | +25 | 26.8% | +0.3 | +1.4 | |
| UK | Men | 3,358 | -7 | +16 | 16.4% | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Women | 5,471 | -49 | -71 | 26.4% | -0.3 | -0.4 |
Economic inactivity by age
The youth economic inactivity rate is the highest it has been since comparable record began in 2002.
The economic inactivity rate for 50-64 year olds is the lowest it has been since comparable records began in 2002.
| Age Group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate | 37.0% | 39.2% |
| Year change (% pts) | +1.9 | +0.4 | |
| 25-34 | Rate | 15.3% | 13.5% |
| Year change (% pts) | +1.5 | -0.5 | |
| 35-49 | Rate | 16.2% | 13.2% |
| Year change (% pts) | +2.6 | -0.3 | |
| 50-64 | Rate | 27.4% | 26.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.1 | -0.2 |
Claimant Count
The Claimant Count figures presented here are the experimental statistics from the ONS for Jobseekers Allowance, plus Universal Credit claimants who are out of work.
Under Universal Credit a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseekers Allowance. As Universal Credit Full Service is rolled out in particular areas, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise.
This is not an official measure of unemployment, but it does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level.
Scotland and UK comparison
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for May in Scotland increased by 0.1 percentage point over the year.
There was no change over the quarter or year in the claimant count rate in the UK.
The Scottish claimant count rate is higher than the UK rate.
| Level | Month Change | Year Change | Rate | Month Change (% pts) | Year Change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 81,500 | -100 | +3,500 | 2.3% | 0.0 | +0.1 |
| UK | 814,500 | +5,900 | +35,700 | 2.0% | 0.0 | +0.1 |
Constituency data: Unemployment rate
The constituency data for Scotland comes from the Annual Population Survey (APS). The APS datasets are produced quarterly, with each dataset containing 12 months of data.
The latest APS data is for Apr 2016 - Mar 2017.
Inverness and Nairn have the lowest unemployment rate at 1.0% while Cunninghame North has the highest at 11.8%. Aberdeen South and North Kincardine saw the biggest increase over the year, while Dundee City West saw the largest decrease.
Find out the latest labour market data for your constituency.
Sources
Office for National Statistics. (2017, July 12). UK labour market: July 2017. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/july2017" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/july2017</a>