Chamber and committees

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been running the monthly COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) for almost three years. Since 2021 this survey has included long COVID questions and has provided high-level estimates for Scotland of the number of people with long COVID by duration.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is now reviewing its approach to COVID-19 surveillance, and survey data collection has been paused since mid-March. The then Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care, Humza Yousaf MSP, wrote to the UK Secretary of State for Health and Social Care on 8 March to express his concern about the delay in deciding the future of the survey, which will result in a gap in the provision of data on long COVID in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year. We are in touch with UKHSA to clarify the details of the updated scope, design and implementation plans for CIS, which will inform our planning for local surveillance.

Our Chief Scientist Office has funded the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) long COVID study. EAVE II forms part of our Scottish Respiratory Surveillance Programme. This is a collaboration between the University of Edinburgh and Public Health Scotland to identify adults at greatest risk of developing long COVID. The study was able to identify cases of long COVID in Scotland using routinely collected clinical data from almost the entire adult Scottish population. The clinical data derived from electronic health records, comprising GP records (coded, free text and sick note data), hospital data, GP Out-of-Hours data, outpatient data, NHS 24 data, medication data and mortality data. The University has drawn on this work to publish an initial report on the estimated prevalence of long COVID among adults in Scotland, titled ‘ Identifying Long Covid Using Electronic Health Records: A National Observational Cohort Study in Scotland ’ . Please note that these findings are preliminary and have not yet been peer-reviewed.

The study team acknowledge that their estimated prevalence findings are lower than estimates derived from surveys such as the COVID-19 Infection Survey and Scottish Health Survey, in which participants self-report having long COVID, rather than long COVID being diagnosed by a medical professional. They also acknowledge that their findings are likely to underestimate total cases because not everyone with long COVID will attend their GP, and not all cases or symptoms will be recorded. However, the report still makes a valuable contribution to our understanding of long COVID prevalence and distribution in Scotland.

We are working closely with Public Health Scotland to develop an approach and methodology for the longer-term surveillance of long COVID, which will in turn inform the planning of health service provision for people with long COVID.