As the committee is aware, on Tuesday, the First Minister set out the outcome of the fifth weekly review of the allocation of levels. Since our levels approach under the strategic framework was introduced at the end of October, we have been seeing a decrease in the number of positive cases being reported each day.? Encouragingly, that suggests that our approach, with the different levels of protective measures, is having the positive impact that it was developed to achieve.
Although prevalence of the virus is still too high, we hope to see further improvements over the coming weeks as the data reflects the impact of the temporary level 4 measures that we introduced. However, we are not complacent. Although the four-nations agreement for a limited relaxation of rules over the festive period will help to combat social isolation and loneliness, it brings with it risks of increased virus transmission.
We have already made it clear that the safest way to spend Christmas is for people to stay within their own existing households, but we acknowledge that there will be demand to see family and friends at this time. The significant risk that that mixing will lead to a rise in the R number and increased cases of Covid-19 is a real one. That is why it has been necessary for this week’s review to continue to take a cautious approach, to manage the risk carefully to ensure that the hard work and sacrifices of people across Scotland are not undermined.
This week’s review sees changes, including confirmation that all 11 local authorities currently in level 4 will move to level 3 from Friday. Those decisions have been made against the need to continue to lower the prevalence of the virus prior to the festive period.? That is key to avoiding the need for more restrictive protective measures in the new year.?
The 11 local authorities have seen prevalence of the virus fall significantly in each area—in some, the number of cases has more than halved.? However, we need to remain cautious. Five other local authorities will see their allocation levels lowered from Friday: two in level 2, Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders, have had consistently low levels for some weeks now and will move to level 1, and three areas in level 3, Angus, Falkirk and Inverclyde, will move down to level 2 as they all now have relatively low rates of transmission.
We also looked carefully at other authorities, including Argyll and Bute and the City of Edinburgh.? Edinburgh is a difficult decision. I am sure that Jason Leitch will have more to say about that. Although it is currently recording cases below the Scottish average, there has been a slight rise in Edinburgh in recent days.
The risks from increased social activity over the festive period are particularly acute in large urban areas such as Edinburgh.? Edinburgh’s good transport links and high concentration of hospitality and retail venues has always attracted—and will continue to attract—a large number of people from a wider area. In the current circumstances, that would increase opportunities for transmission.?That additional risk was a factor for consideration in this week’s review and in our decision not to move Edinburgh at this stage. We have acknowledged the local concerns around that decision and the First Minister has confirmed—and I do so again now—that we will consider the positions of Edinburgh and Midlothian again next week.
As with last week’s review, the trends in case numbers and test positivity in Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire continue to be a source of concern.?We will continue to monitor the situation closely but, in the meantime, both areas will remain at level 2.
In recognition of the need to combat social isolation in some of our more remote communities, especially during the winter months, and taking account of the persistently low infection rates, we have also announced an extension of the level 1 in-home socialising exception to Highland Council’s islands that are not connected by road.
The next scheduled review will be on 15 December.? We reserve the right to bring that forward for any one or more local authorities if the situation requires it.
We have provided the committee with two sets of draft regulations. The draft Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Amendment (No 7) Regulations 2020 make adjustments to the level allocation in 16 areas of Scotland, as I have just set out. The regulations also allow in-home socialising in certain islands, as I just mentioned. They also adjust the travel restrictions in relation to Jersey and the Republic of Ireland. Those regulations will come into force on 11 December.
The second set of regulations is the draft Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Protection from Eviction) (Scotland) Regulations 2020. Previously, we introduced a ban on the enforcement of eviction orders. The draft regulations provide for a ban across the private and social rented sectors for six weeks, from 11 December to 22 January. That reflects the First Minister’s announcement last week and provides support for people who should not be facing the anxiety of eviction during a pandemic and over this period.
I hope that those comments were helpful. Jason Leitch and I stand ready to answer any questions that we can.