First, I will give a summary of today’s statistics. The total number of positive cases that were reported yesterday was 1,248. That represents 9.7 per cent of all tests carried out, and it takes the total number of cases to 83,259. The number of people in hospital is 1,249, which is an increase of 22 from yesterday, and 95 people are in intensive care, which is three fewer than yesterday.
I regret to say that, in the past 24 hours, a further 37 deaths have been registered of patients who first tested positive over the previous 28 days. That means that the total number of deaths under that measure is now 3,323. Once again, my deepest condolences go to all those who have lost a loved one.
National Records of Scotland will publish its weekly report tomorrow. That report records deaths confirmed through a test as being Covid related and those that are presumed to be so. It is very likely, based on the numbers that we have reported in the past seven days, that the death toll, under that wider measure, will this week pass 5,000. That is a sombre and deeply distressing milestone. It is important that we acknowledge it, and that we remember every individual whose life has been lost to the virus.
Those figures remind us of the harm and the heartbreak that Covid causes if it is allowed to spread. They also provide important context for today’s statement, in which I will report on the outcome of the Scottish Government’s review of the Covid protection levels and set out the difficult but necessary decisions that we have reached about the appropriate level of protection in each local authority area.
In reaching these decisions, the Scottish Government has taken careful account of case numbers and test positivity in different parts of Scotland. We have also considered the trends in each area and the pace—or otherwise—of those trends, and we have assessed what all that might mean for hospital and intensive care capacity. We are publishing today the up-to-date and detailed data for each local authority area on the Scottish Government website.
We take advice from the national incident management team, the chief medical officer and the national clinical director on the measures that are needed to control the virus, and from a range of senior officials on minimising the wider harms that result from Covid restrictions. We also consult with local authorities before reaching a final judgment, which the Cabinet did this morning. I understand that Parliament will have the chance to debate the decisions on Thursday.
This week, given that the levels system has now been in place for almost three weeks, we have had the chance to reflect on what we have learned so far about the effectiveness of different levels in reducing the prevalence of the virus, and on the importance of acting quickly and firmly against Covid.
I turn to an assessment of the situation that we face before I set out the decisions that we have reached. First, I want to be very clear that the restrictions that have been in place in recent weeks on household gatherings and hospitality have made a difference. They have slowed down the increase in cases considerably, and they have helped to flatten the infection curve. In early October, we were on a trajectory that, without action, would have seen us reporting around 3,000 cases each day by now. That has not happened—daily case numbers are almost a third of that figure and, at this point, prevalence in Scotland is lower than in other United Kingdom nations. We have made progress, which is thanks to people across the country, but the overall level of infection remains higher than we need it to be, and the national picture is masking significant regional variations.
While some areas have low and even slightly declining infection rates, a number of local authorities across central Scotland have case numbers and test positivity rates that are significantly above the national average. Although the situation in many of those areas has stabilised, it has done so at a stubbornly high level. That creates concern for a number of reasons, which I will set out in a moment.
In summary, therefore, the Cabinet has decided as follows. Nineteen council areas—the majority—will see no change to their levels this week. I am pleased to say that, from the start of next week, assuming that there is no significant deterioration in the situation before then, two areas will move down from level 3 to level 2. However, 11 local authorities will, from 6 pm on Friday and for a strictly limited period, move from level 3 to level 4. I will set out the details of all those decisions in a moment.
I am acutely aware that, for many individuals and businesses, those decisions will be both disappointing and distressing. They demand more sacrifice from all of us. I therefore want to take a moment to remind people why the decisions are necessary and what they are intended to achieve.
First, the decisions are necessary to ensure that the national health service can cope with the range of pressures that it will face over the winter. We must ensure that hospital and intensive care services are there not just for those with Covid, but for everyone who needs them. That means that we must get case numbers down from current levels before we go into a period in which winter pressures are very likely to increase.
Secondly, the decisions will give us the best possible chance, albeit in a limited and careful way, of being able to ease restrictions in all parts of Scotland for Christmas. That is something that all of us want to look forward to, but we know that it will increase the risks of transmission, so we must get infection rates to a lower baseline now.
Thirdly, the decisions will help us to limit the impact of the virus, including through loss of life, as we steer a path through the next few months towards the brighter times that are now within sight, as vaccines and better treatments become available.
Difficult though today’s decisions undoubtedly are, please do not forget that an end to all this is now within our grasp, but we must get through the next few months as safely as possible. That means that tough decisions cannot be avoided, no matter how much you and I fervently wish they could be.
I turn now to the detail of our decisions, starting with local authorities that are remaining at their current level. I can confirm that Orkney, Shetland, the Western Isles, Moray and Highland will remain in level 1. For now, in common with the rest of the country, we are asking people in Moray and the Highlands not to visit other people’s houses. However, for all areas in level 1, it will be permissible from Thursday this week to meet outdoors with up to eight people from a maximum of three households.
I can confirm that Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway and Argyll and Bute will all remain in level 2. We hope that those areas—perhaps Argyll and Bute in particular—will be able to move to level 1 soon. However, in some of those areas there has been an increase in cases in recent days. We are particularly concerned about quite sharp increases, albeit from a relatively low level, in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire.
That leads me to make a general point—a plea—to everyone living in level 1 and 2 areas. Please do not assume that being in one of the lower levels means that you can ease up. On the contrary, having fewer restrictions means that the virus has more opportunities to spread, so it is more vital to abide by all the rules and precautions. Please use the postcode checker on our website to remind yourselves of what the restrictions are in your area, and please stick to them.
I am pleased to report that East Lothian and Midlothian have both had a marked decline in infection rates and that prevalence in those areas is significantly below the level for Scotland as a whole. On that basis, I can confirm that, assuming that there is no significant deterioration before then, East Lothian and Midlothian will move down from level 3 to level 4—sorry; from level 3 to level 2—from next Tuesday, 24 November. Between now and then, those local authorities will be able to undertake necessary environmental health and compliance checks and work with NHS Lothian to minimise any risk of increased transmission that the move to level 2 will bring.
I can confirm that the City of Edinburgh, Clackmannanshire, Falkirk, Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, Dundee, Fife, Perth and Kinross and Angus will all remain at level 3 for now. To varying degrees, those areas are all making some progress, although it remains fragile. However, we are hopeful that, if that progress continues, they will move to level 2 soon.
I turn now to our decisions about level 4. The council areas that will move to level 4 for a limited period from Friday are: Glasgow City, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire, Stirling and West Lothian. In all those areas, there are grounds for continued and significant concern.
In the seven days up to Friday, Scotland as a whole had just over 140 new cases of Covid per 100,000 people. All the areas moving to level 4 were above that level, ranging from West Lothian, with a rate of 158 cases per 100,000, to Glasgow, with 277. Test positivity for all those areas, with the exception of West Dunbartonshire, was also above the average. Stirling has experienced a particularly sharp increase in cases over the past week. While some of that can be attributed to specific outbreaks, there is also a level of community transmission there that must be tackled.
In the other areas, infection rates have stabilised or even fallen slightly as a result of level 3 measures. However—and this is the key point of concern—the infection rate in all those areas remains stubbornly and worryingly high. At such levels, we simply do not have the assurance that we need that hospital services and intensive care units will be able to cope as we go deeper into the winter. In those areas, pressure on hospitals and on those who work in them is already severe. With the additional pressure that the coming weeks may bring, it could easily become intolerable. Furthermore, at these levels, we would not have the flexibility that we need in order to ease restrictions over Christmas—which, in common with the other nations of the United Kingdom, we so desperately want to do.
Therefore, the clear advice of our public health experts is that we must drive infection rates down further in those areas, and they are not confident that level 3 restrictions will do so to the extent necessary. That is why, albeit reluctantly, we have taken the decision to place those areas into level 4 for a limited period.
The level 4 restrictions will be in place for three weeks, and will be lifted on 11 December. I want to be clear on that point, because I know that people are frustrated that other restrictions have remained in place for longer than planned. Level 4 is intended to be short and sharp. In this situation, it is specifically intended to have an impact in advance of Christmas and the most challenging winter period. Lifting the level 4 restrictions then, as we will do, also means that they will not be in place for most of the Hanukkah period. Again, although celebrations may be different, there will be a greater degree of freedom.
Nearer the time, we will assess the level that will apply in each area when the level 4 restrictions end on 11 December. Even if it does not happen immediately for all of them, we hope and expect that the action that we are taking now will allow those areas to move down to level 2 much more quickly than would otherwise be the case.
I will talk about what level 4 means for people living in those areas. First, as is the case already, people must not visit other people’s homes, although they can still meet outdoors with up to six people from two households. However, our advice is that people should stay at or close to home as much as possible. The purpose of level 4 is to reduce interactions between people from different households as much as possible, in order to reduce transmission as quickly as possible. That means limiting work and social contacts. Those who can work from home should do so, although, unlike during lockdown earlier in the year, construction and manufacturing workplaces will remain open.
Only essential indoor retail premises will remain open for the three-week period, and non-essential retail will close. Close-contact services, such as hairdressers and beauty salons, visitor attractions, leisure and entertainment settings and indoor gyms will also close for that period. With the exception of takeaway services, hospitality premises will close, too. Therefore, except for some very limited purposes, including childcare, caring for someone who is vulnerable, exercise or shopping for essential goods, people living in level 4 areas should not be going out and about over the three-week period.
I know that it will be tough. The pandemic is having an impact on mental health for most, if not all, of us. If people need someone to talk to, they can find out what support is available at clearyourhead.scot or by calling NHS 111. However, please remember: our objective in taking action now is to protect the NHS, create the prospect of seeing some loved ones at Christmas and complete the journey to next spring with as few restrictions as possible, and with the minimum impact on life and health.
I now turn to the issue of travel. Notwithstanding today’s difficult decisions for significant parts of the country, the levels system is still allowing us to avoid a national, one-size-fits-all lockdown, such as is currently in place in England. In my view, that is important. It means that people and businesses in lower-prevalence areas, such as the Highlands or parts of Lothian, are not forced into level 4 restrictions by the situation in higher-prevalence areas such as Glasgow.
The ability to maintain that targeted approach depends on us not spreading the virus from high-prevalence to low-prevalence areas, which becomes even more important with parts of the country in level 4. To put it bluntly, and we will require to monitor this, if we see evidence that people from East or South Ayrshire are visiting places in North Ayrshire, or that people from Glasgow are going to Inverclyde, we will have no choice but to consider level 4 for those areas, too. We do not want to do that, so it is essential that we all abide by the travel restrictions.
To underline how important that is, I confirm that, from Friday, the guidance that has been in place in recent weeks will become law. That means that people living in level 3 or level 4 must not travel outside their own council area, except for certain essential purposes. People living elsewhere in Scotland must not travel to level 3 or level 4 areas, except for essential purposes. There must be no non-essential travel between Scotland and other parts of the UK.
I know that it is difficult, but it is essential. Broadly comparable restrictions have been, or continue to be, in force in England and Wales. If we are to maintain a targeted approach and allow those in low-prevalence areas to live with fewer restrictions, I cannot stress enough how important it is that we all abide by the rules.
I will say a few words about schools, those in the shielding category, business support and, finally, the wider action that we are taking to beat the virus.
I am aware that some people argue that schools should also be closed at level 4. However, our very clear view is that the harm that is done to young people by closing schools significantly outweighs any impact that schools have on transmission. Keeping schools open is therefore a priority. However, we will keep the guidance for schools—and how it is being implemented—under close review. A further evidence paper on school safety will be published by the Deputy First Minister tomorrow. Specific measures are also in place for those who are on the shielding list. We currently recommend that children who were shielding should not attend school in person in level 4 areas.
More broadly, I know that this is an anxious time for people who were shielding. We are not advising the same strict isolation as in the previous lockdown; we know how harmful that is to wellbeing. Instead, the advice is to be especially vigilant. The chief medical officer will be writing directly to all people in level 4 areas who were on the shielding list, to provide more detailed advice.
The restrictions are also very difficult for business, so we are making more financial support available. In addition to the UK furlough scheme, all businesses that require to close, at any level, are eligible for a four-weekly grant of £2,000 or £3,000, depending on rateable value, and grants of £1,400 or £2,100 are available to businesses that are open but subject to trading restrictions. Eligible businesses can apply for those grants now, through their local authority. In addition, we are establishing a £30 million discretionary fund to enable local authorities, if they consider it to be necessary or justified, to provide additional support for businesses—for example, businesses in supply chains, or taxi drivers who are suffering a severe but indirect effect.
We will also make an additional £15 million available for newly self-employed people who have not been able to access other forms of support, and we are making available to local authorities an additional £15 million to help with the community and social impact of a move to level 4. More details on those funds will be made available shortly.
In my statement, I have focused, necessarily, on restrictions. However, increasingly and much more positively, our focus is now also on the other ways of beating the virus. We have real reason to be optimistic that science will get us out of this pandemic—and soon. Later this week, the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport will set out to Parliament our plans to start vaccinating the most vulnerable as soon as stocks of an approved vaccine are available—we hope that that might even be before the end of this calendar year—and then to roll that out across the adult population as quickly as supplies allow.
Now that we have a supply of lateral flow tests, the health secretary will also, next week, set out our plans for mass testing. That will include more detail on the plans that we have already announced to test care home visitors, NHS staff and students. She will also set out plans for geographic mass testing—drawing on the lessons of the pilot that is under way in Liverpool—and the options for extending mass testing to other groups of key workers.
That is perhaps an appropriate point to end on. The pandemic is taking its toll on all of us—and on some much more than others. I know that today’s decisions will add to that for many, and I am truly sorry for that. Whether you agree with the decisions or not, please know that they are not taken lightly but are essential to get us to the other side of this as safely as possible. That means all of us sticking to the rules and remembering FACTS in everything that we do—wear face coverings, avoid places with crowds of people, clean your hands and hard surfaces regularly, keep a 2m distance from people in other households, and self-isolate and get tested if you have any of the symptoms of Covid.
It also means holding firm to what this is all for. In a global pandemic that is nobody’s fault, this action is necessary in order to protect ourselves and those we love from a potentially deadly virus. It is essential in helping the NHS look after all of us who need it, in giving us the hope of some respite and time with loved ones at Christmas, and in helping us, with as little suffering and loss of life as possible, to complete the final stage of this horrible journey to the point—next spring, I hope—when we will be vaccinating, testing and treating our way back to normality.
I can never thank everyone enough for all the sacrifices that are being made, and I will never underestimate how difficult it is. I hold to the belief that love and solidarity, albeit with a lot of help from science, will get us through this, and that soon we will be looking back on it, not living through it. Please, try to stay strong, and, please, stick with it and stick together.