Yes. The economists and all the think tanks are more expert than we are at making projections, and I agree that the estimate that Colin Beattie quoted is the ballpark figure.
We are already seeing a fall in capacity. In the manufacturing sector, which was mentioned earlier, some businesses are already working at only 50, 60 or 70 per cent capacity, and our hospitality industry is operating at 20 or 30 per cent in some cases. The figures from the Fraser of Allander institute are therefore probably pretty accurate, if things stay as they are right now. Of course, we do not know what lies ahead in the next few months—there might be a second wave or whatever. The question from committee members is, “What can we do about that?”
The previous question concerned local and regional flexibility, and focused on customised support. I have 30 chambers of commerce and, believe you me, they all put their hands up and say that they deserve other support.
There is a case to be made for looking closely at local support mechanisms and customising support from Government into the areas concerned. That worked previously with the oil and gas industry, and we should consider that option closely. For those of you who have not already seen it, I understand that the Scottish Government has done some analysis on that. Referring to the economics of all this, there are predictions about which areas of Scotland are more at risk. It is worth taking an exploratory look at that to see if we can start considering some development plans.
Barry McCulloch made a point about city deals and urban and rural town centre deals. Perhaps the committee might want to consider all those issues in the one pot to bring things together. There is funding within city deals, and there is also funding in some of the other UK and Scottish Government town deals and urban deals. If we can begin to co-ordinate that funding a bit better than we are doing now, it might help to support businesses in the areas concerned. We should examine closely the city deal applications that have already been made and whether they are still relevant in the crisis that we are in? That is the question. Do they need to be tweaked or perhaps resubmitted to the UK and Scottish Governments?
As for costs for business and how we can help to support business, we have talked a lot about the job retention scheme and employment costs, which tend to be the higher costs for business. Can we look a little bit more at the total cost of doing business here in Scotland? I am referring to non-domestic rates, and you will hear about that from me again. That was the number 1 concern at the start of the Covid crisis, and it remains among the top three concerns. It is a massive cost to all businesses in all sectors, even with the support from the Scottish Government in the form of rates relief. We have had reviews and recommendations, but can we just close that off and begin to focus on reducing the cost of business rates?
The planning system has been mentioned, and we might also look closely at that. We have indeed had some flexibility in planning, but the system is still not good enough. Can we revisit that? The national planning framework is there, and things will take time. Can we consider a short-term action plan, particularly on planning, to make it easier for construction and other major projects to get up and running quickly across all parts of Scotland? Differentiation can be a disadvantage for many businesses, depending on the interpretation being implemented by local authorities and the planning authorities.
My final point is about procurement. We have included some suggestions in our briefing about how we might better utilise procurement opportunities to support small and medium-sized businesses in particular.
As a package, all that could go quite a way towards helping to retain businesses and indeed jobs.