The Covid pandemic has inflicted much suffering and hardship on our society. Many of our young people have had to face that pain across different aspects of their lives. I want to make it clear that I understand that anguish and I can see that, for some, the SQA results process made that worse. We set out to ensure that the system was fair and that it was credible, but we did not get it right for all young people.
Before I go any further, I want to apologise for that. In speaking directly to the young people affected by the downgrading of awards—the 75,000 pupils whose teacher estimates were higher than their final awards—I want to say this: I am sorry.
Sorry as I am, I know that an apology is not enough. I watched the pictures of the spirited, articulate young people demonstrating in George Square on Friday. I have spoken directly to pupils who wrote to me—Nicole Tate, Lauren Steele, Eva Peteranna, Erin Bleakley, Subhan Baig and Eilidh Breslin—and I thank them for the passion and clarity that they brought to our discussions. I have also heard from parents and teachers.
I have listened, and the message is clear. They do not just want an apology—they want to see this fixed, and that is exactly what I will now do.
The exceptional circumstances of this year meant that it was not safe to hold exams in the spring. I said that we would need to do our utmost to protect the interests and life chances of our young people who were due to sit exams. It was always imperative that their achievements would be rightly and fairly recognised. I wanted the 2020 cohort to be able to hold their heads high and gain the qualifications and awards that they deserved after many years of hard work.
Covid meant that there was no established process for how to achieve that. All of it had to be developed at pace after we announced that schools required to close on 20 March.
I asked the SQA to develop an alternative approach to certification, to ensure that young people could receive awards this year. The SQA developed a model, which gathered teachers’ and lecturers’ estimates in the absence of any other information and involved moderation of those estimates across all centres, to maintain standards.
That resulted in an increase in the pass rates of 2.9 per cent at national 5, 4.2 per cent at higher, and 5.5 per cent at advanced higher. Before I go any further, let me congratulate those tens of thousands of young people who achieved that strong result.
The system also meant that some people did not receive the awards that they felt they were capable of achieving and which their teachers believed they deserved.
The focus has, understandably, been on the impact on young people from deprived backgrounds. The defining mission of this Government is to do all that we can to improve the life chances of children and young people who live in poverty. We have focused intensely on that mission during this session of Parliament. The fact is that the results last week produced higher increases in the pass rates among young people from deprived backgrounds than among young people from any other group. I commend those young people on their achievements.
However, that picture does not disguise, or detract from, the clear anger and frustration among some young people and their families about their results. That anger stems from the unfairness that they feel is at the heart of the model for certification that we put in place.
The process relied on the professional judgment of teachers and lecturers, and we know that it was subsequently the case that the overwhelming majority—around three quarters—of those grade estimates were not adjusted at all. That is a demonstration of the strength within our teaching profession and the sound understanding of standards across the suite of qualifications and through curriculum for excellence. I thank the teaching profession for the care and attention that went into making every individual estimated grade.
The estimates that were received in May showed an increase in attainment at grades A to C by 10.4 percentage points for national 5s, by 14 percentage points for highers and by 13.4 percentage points for advanced highers. Those estimates, if grades were awarded without moderation, would have represented a very significant increase in the pass rate across the board and a one-year change without precedent in Scottish exam history. To ensure that it carried out what I asked of it, which was that the results were to be certificated on the basis of maintaining standards across all centres, the SQA judged that increases of that nature could not be sustained without moderation.
Moderation is not a new process. It is an annual process and is widespread across all countries where exams take place. It helps to ensure that standards are maintained over time. In previous years, moderation was applied to quality assure centre assessment judgments of performance. This year, it was applied to teacher and lecturer estimates.
The SQA has provided a significant amount of information about how its methodology works, which I will not restate today. Some people have called for that to have been done earlier but, every year, the SQA provides the details of its marking methodology on results day and, although the methodology has changed this year, the principle of publishing on results day remains the same.
The moderation methodology consisted of both national and local moderation and was robust and based on a number of principles that the SQA has set out. There was always going to be a risk with that approach that, despite best efforts, some learners would see a grade adjusted in a way that did not reflect their potential. That is why the SQA included an open, free appeals process in its approach from the outset.
As a result of the SQA moderation process, 134,000 teacher estimates were adjusted, with just under 76,000 candidates having one or more of their grades lowered when compared to the teacher estimate.
Despite the headline improvements in the pass rate at national 5, higher and advanced higher, despite the fact that the pass rate among pupils in the most deprived areas increased at a sharper rate than pass rates in the least deprived communities, and despite the fact that there was progress in closing the attainment gap, the results left many young people feeling that their future had been determined by statistical modelling rather than their own capability and capacity. That has left a feeling of unfairness in the minds of young people.
I draw three conclusions from all that. First, we were concerned that grade inflation, through accepting the original estimates from teachers, would run the risk of undermining the value of qualifications in 2020. In the light of events and of listening to young people, we now accept that that concern, which is not without foundation, is outweighed by the concern that young people, particularly from working-class backgrounds, may lose faith in the education system and form the view that, no matter how hard they work, the system is against them. Education is the route out of poverty for young people in deprived communities, and we cannot risk allowing that view to take hold.
Secondly, there is a view that relying on teacher judgment this year alone may give young people an incomparable advantage over pupils in other years. That view has to be weighed against the massive disadvantage that Covid has given young people through the loss of schooling, the limited social interaction, the pressure on mental wellbeing and, in some cases, the heartbreak of bereavement. Perhaps our approach to maintaining standards for the 2020 cohort alongside every other year—even though 2020 is so unique—did not fully understand the trauma of Covid for that year group and did not appreciate that a different approach might help to even things out.
Thirdly, this year, 2020, is and must be seen as unique. It has turned our society upside down. It cannot fairly be compared with previous years, and it cannot set an automatic precedent for future years. However, it perhaps merits taking a different approach in relation to certification.
Before I move on to how we resolve that issue, I want to be clear about the role of the Scottish Qualifications Authority. As I have said already, I asked the SQA to ensure that the qualifications of 2020 would be comparable to the qualifications of any other year despite the extraordinary times in which we are living. The SQA undertook the task that I set it, and it did so in good faith. I make no criticism of its actions in so doing. I am grateful to everyone at the SQA for the professional approach that they have taken.
I will now set out how I intend to resolve the issue.
I can confirm to Parliament that all downgraded awards will be withdrawn. Using powers that are available to me in the Education (Scotland) Act 1996, I am today directing the SQA to reissue those awards based solely on teacher or lecturer judgment. Schools will be able to confirm the estimates that they provided for pupils to those who are returning to school this week and next week. The SQA will issue fresh certificates to affected candidates as soon as possible and—this is important—will inform the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service and other admission bodies of the new grades as soon as practical in the coming days to allow for applications to college and university to be progressed.
As the First Minister confirmed yesterday, in those cases in which moderation led to an increased grade, learners will not lose that award. Many of those young people will already have moved on to secure college or university places on the strength of the awards that were made to them. To unpick them now would not in any way be fair.
Due to the unique circumstances of the situation, we will this year make provision for enough places in universities and colleges to ensure that no one is crowded out of a place that they would otherwise have been awarded.
The outcomes from the 2020 SQA national qualifications will be updated, and a revised statistical release will be available from 31 August. However, I can confirm that the provisional revised 2020 results, based on the professional judgments of Scotland’s teachers and lecturers, can be summarised as follows: a national 5 pass rate of 88.9 per cent, which is 10.7 percentage points higher than in 2019; a higher pass rate of 89.2 per cent, which is 14.4 percentage points higher than in 2019; and an advanced higher pass rate of 93.1 per cent, which is 13.7 percentage points higher than in 2019. I can also confirm that the final new headline results for national 5s, highers and advanced highers will be published by 21 August.
A result of the change in approach to awarding qualifications is that there will no longer be the need for exactly the same appeals process that was planned to consider cases in which awarded grades were lower than teacher estimates. There remains the need for the option of an appeal in some circumstances. Detail on that will be set out by the end of the week.
There are many lessons that we need to learn from our experience through this pandemic and from the difficult decisions we have had to make in unprecedented circumstances.
The 2020 SQA results have sparked a lot of debate about the future of assessment and qualifications in Scotland and the best way to recognise learners’ achievements. We have already commissioned the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to conduct an independent review of the curriculum for excellence. A key focus of that exercise is curriculum design, and that already includes looking at our approach to assessment, qualifications and other achievements and how well they articulate with the curriculum, learning and teaching. We will work with our partners at the OECD with a view to extending the remit of the curriculum for excellence review to include recommendations on how to transform the Scottish approach to assessment and qualifications, based on best practice globally.
Even before a broader review takes place, however, we need to quickly look at the immediate lessons of this year’s awards process. Coronavirus has not gone away and, although we expect next year’s exams to go ahead, we need to put in place the right plans to make sure that we do not find ourselves in the same situation again.
I am aware that many teachers will be keen to understand fully the arrangements for national qualifications in 2021. The education recovery group has discussed a number of options in relation to this, and I confirm that the SQA will begin a rapid consultation exercise on options for change later this week. That will include consideration of key issues such as increasing optionality in question papers, removing components of course assessment and adjusting the volume of evidence required in coursework tasks.
In addition, however, I am today announcing that an independent review will be led by Professor Mark Priestley of the University of Stirling. The review will look at events following the cancellation of the examination diet and the alternative certification model that was put in place by the SQA. Areas to be considered include the advice provided to awarding centres by the SQA and local authorities; the approach developed in relation to estimating learners’ grades; teachers’ estimates; the moderation methodology used by the SQA; the proposed appeals process; the impact on young people and their families; transparency and the role of scrutiny of the process; and feedback received from teachers and lecturers on the grades that were awarded last week. Given the urgency, I have asked for an initial report within five weeks with recommendations on how we should go forward this coming year.
These are exceptional times and, in exceptional times, truly difficult decisions have to be made. It is deeply regrettable that we got this wrong, and I am sorry for that.
We have listened to young people and I hope that all will now feel satisfied that they have achieved the grades that their teachers and lecturers judged that they deserved. I assure Parliament that we will look to learn lessons from the process of awarding qualifications this year that will help to inform any future actions.
Finally, I would like to thank all of Scotland’s children, young people and adult learners for the incredible resilience they have shown throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. We are immensely proud of all that they have achieved. I hope that our pupils now move forward confidently to their next step in education, employment or training with the qualifications that teachers or lecturers have judged were deserved.
Covid has at times placed unbearable pressures on us all and I wish our learners well in building on the achievements they have justifiably been awarded in these most difficult of days.