Presiding Officer, thank you for the opportunity to report on the latest review of the coronavirus lockdown regulations.
First, I will summarise the progress that we have made so far in tackling the virus. I will then set out the careful changes that we intend to make to the rules and guidance over the next three weeks, and when those various changes will take effect. Finally, I will give details of some further work that we have commissioned to inform future decision making.
I will start with my usual report on the daily statistics. In doing so, I thank our health and care workers—indeed all key workers—for the extraordinary work that they are doing in incredibly testing circumstances.
As at 9 o’clock this morning, 18,077 positive cases have been confirmed, which is an increase of 11 from yesterday. A total of 929 patients are in hospital with Covid-19. That represents a total decrease of 36 from yesterday, including a decrease of six in the number of confirmed cases. A total of 23 people last night were in intensive care with confirmed or suspected Covid-19. That is a decrease of one since yesterday.
Unfortunately, I also have to report that, in the past 24 hours, two deaths have been registered of patients who had been confirmed through a test as having Covid-19. That takes the total number of deaths in Scotland, under that measurement, to 2,464.
Those numbers, together with the figures that were published yesterday by National Records of Scotland, make clear the human cost of the virus. That human cost has been utterly devastating, and it should serve as a serious warning against any complacency as we move into the next phase of fighting what is a dangerous, and sadly often deadly, virus.
However, the sustained decline in the number of people dying from the virus also demonstrates the real progress that we have made. Yesterday’s NRS data showed that the number of Covid deaths last week was less than one ninth of the peak level. The number of people in intensive care has fallen by more than 90 per cent since the peak, and hospital admissions, which at one stage were at 200 every day, are now down to single figures each day.
The R number is currently below 1 and has been stable at between 0.6 and 0.9 for the past three weeks. We estimate that the number of people who could be infectious with coronavirus in Scotland as of last Friday was 2,900. I remind members and the public that three weeks ago our estimate, which has since been revised, was 19,000.
The progress that we have made to date is clear and substantial. However, it has been made possible only because of the efforts and enormous sacrifices that people across Scotland have made. I am deeply grateful to each and every one for all of that.
Taking account of that progress and the other evidence that we are required to assess, I am therefore pleased to confirm that the Scottish Government has concluded that we can now move into the next phase of our exit from lockdown. I will set out specifically what that means in a moment. However, I stress that we must still exercise care and caution. Our progress so far is because of lockdown. The virus has not gone away, and we must all remember that.
As we gradually remove the restrictions that have kept the virus under control, there is a real risk that transmission could rise again. That is why, if we do not want to go backwards—as none of us do—we must progress carefully.
I know that, in many ways, even more patience is required now than was required previously, when the danger of the virus was perhaps more obvious. As we start to feel that the virus is receding, there will be a growing and understandable desire to move back to normality more quickly, and we will all feel frustrated at times if that journey seems too slow. That is true for individuals—for all of us—and, I know, for business. The impact of this crisis on businesses, large and small, is colossal, and we all want the economy to reopen as quickly as possible.
However, if—as I believe is the case—frustration, leading to a premature easing of too many restrictions, is our biggest risk right now, it is equally true that patience could reap our biggest rewards. If we can suppress the virus more—if we can get as close as possible to eliminating it now—we give ourselves a better chance of not simply controlling future outbreaks or clusters, but of doing so through more targeted measures rather than general, blanket restrictions on our way of life.
The alternative, which would happen if we moved too quickly, is that the virus would continue to circulate in the community at a higher level of transmission. The measures that would then be needed to stop it running out of control and growing exponentially again would be more restrictive and would have to be applied much more generally and, potentially, for much longer.
So, difficult though I know all of this is, the prize for going a bit more carefully now is a recovery that is much more sustainable and one that will, I hope, allow more normality to be restored to our everyday lives. That will be important in every aspect of life, but it will be vital particularly for children getting back to normal, full-time schooling as quickly as possible. That is why, although we are moving to phase 2 today, we are still being cautious and we are not going to do everything at once. We intend to take a staged approach to avoid bearing all of the risk at the same time.
In deciding when to implement each measure, we have tried to reach a reasonable order of priority, and to think about the various interdependencies—that is, about how a decision that we take in one area affects life in other areas. All of that said, I readily acknowledge how difficult this is. There is no perfect route out of lockdown. All approaches and any approach that we take will have risks. What we are trying to do is manage and mitigate those risks as far as we possibly can.
Because of that, we have decided that, during phase 2, we will continue to ask people, as far as possible, to stay within or close to their local area. Our ambition is to be in a position to lift that restriction in phase 3 and in good time for the proposed resumption of tourism from 15 July. However, at this stage, for leisure and recreation purposes, we are asking people not to travel more than around 5 miles or so from their home—although I stress that that does not apply to meeting family and friends. Of course, home working should still be the norm whenever that is possible.
Asking people to abide by that guidance gives us much greater confidence in making other changes during phase 2, so I will now take some time to set out the most important of those changes in the order in which we propose that they happen. Detail of all the changes that will be made during phase 2, and the timing of them, will be available on the Scottish Government website.
The only change that will take effect immediately from today is in our guidance for people who are shielding— that is, those who are most at risk from Covid-19 and who have therefore been advised until now to stay inside completely. I indicated last week my hope that, from today, anyone who is shielding—unless they live in a nursing home or a residential care home—would be able to go outdoors for exercise, such as for a walk, wheel or cycle. I am very pleased to confirm that change today. So, if you have been shielding, and you planned to take some outdoor exercise today, you can go ahead, although you are, of course, very welcome to continue to listen to my remarks first.
Our clinical advisers have made a further assessment of the evidence and I am pleased to say that they have given the go-ahead to some additional changes to the guidance. To provide some advance notice of that, we have decided that those additional changes will apply from tomorrow.
From tomorrow, our advice will be that shielding people can also take part in non-contact outdoor activities such as golf. In addition, the advice from tomorrow will be that people who are shielding can meet outdoors with people from one other household, but in groups of no more than eight.
I want to stress, however, that if you are shielding, you should continue to be extremely cautious, which means that you should stay at least 2m away from other people at all times, even if you live with the people that you are outside with. Do not go inside someone else’s house, or allow someone from another household to go inside yours, even to use a toilet. When you do go outside, try to choose times and areas that are quieter and wash your hands thoroughly as soon as you get home.
I know that the requirement to stay indoors at all times, without meeting up with anyone, has been incredibly tough for shielding people—undoubtedly the toughest aspect of the lockdown. I hope that the change to our advice, which allows not just outdoor exercise but limited outdoor meetings, can provide a real improvement to your quality of life, crucially, without significantly increasing the risks that you face. We will provide further guidance before 31 July, when the current shielding period is due to end.
I turn to advice for the general population. We are also making some limited changes, which will take effect from tomorrow, to the rules on social interaction for those who are not being asked to shield. The rules currently state that one household can meet up with just one other household. Those meetings must be outdoors and should involve no more than eight people, who should maintain strict physical distancing of 2m.
From tomorrow, people from one household can meet outdoors with people from up to two other households. You can meet those two households together or separately and it does not always have to be the same ones, but it should be no more than two at a time and no more than two in a day. We still advise that there should not be more than eight people in any group.
We will also change the guidance so that you can, if necessary, go indoors to use a toilet if you are meeting in the garden of another household, and I hope that those changes will make family meetings a little bit more practical. Please, however, remember that meetings must still be outdoors at this stage. With the one exception that I will outline shortly, we still judge that the risk of mixed household gatherings indoors is too high.
If you go inside to use a toilet, please avoid touching surfaces and immediately and thoroughly clean those that you do touch. By doing that, you will avoid possibly creating a bridge for the virus to travel from one household to another.
When we consider what changes to make, we are always mindful of the wider harms that have come from the restrictions in place to tackle Covid. One of those harms is loneliness and isolation, particularly for older people who live alone and for lone parents. From tomorrow, we will change advice to allow anyone who lives on their own, or only with children under 18, to form an extended household group with one other household.
In an extended household group, people will be able to meet indoors without physical distancing and to stay overnight—although only if they wish to do so, of course. However, they must continue to see any other households outdoors only, and stay more than 2m apart from them. No member of such an extended household group should form a similar arrangement with any other household, and an extended household must not include someone who is shielding.
If one member of an extended household group gets the virus, all the group will have to isolate, regardless of whether they live in the same property. I also encourage those who choose to form extended households to pay particular attention to hygiene measures to reduce the risk that one household will bring the virus into another.
The extended household change is not open-ended, although we will consider if and to what extent we can expand it over the next few weeks. I know that it will not immediately make a difference for everyone but, from tomorrow, it will allow a grandparent who lives on their own to form a group with another household in their family, a single parent and their children to join with another household for support, and a non-cohabiting couple, where at least one of them lives alone, to be reunited indoors without physical distancing. I hope that that will help to ease some of the isolation that is one of the cruellest consequences of tackling the virus.
Inevitably, complexities are involved in the changes and there will be many questions about the detail. You will find more information on the Scottish Government website, but with the best will in the world, we cannot provide precise answers for every single bespoke situation so, when in doubt, please use your judgment and err on the side of caution. If you are worried that something that you are thinking of doing risks spreading the virus, please do not do it.
The various changes that I have just outlined are the only ones that will take effect before this weekend. However, further changes will come into effect on Monday 22 June. For example, from then, the construction sector will be able to move to the next phase of its restart plan and then move through the remaining phases, subject to on-going consultation with Government. Dentists will be able to reopen from Monday, initially for urgent care. Professional sport can resume, although, since strict public health restrictions remain in place, that will be only behind closed doors. Places of worship will reopen but for individual prayer only, not communal worship.
I know that during the crisis many will have drawn real strength and comfort from their faith. I also know that people of all faiths are missing the ability to gather together. I want to acknowledge that and thank the priests, ministers, rabbis, imams and many others who have worked so hard to keep in touch with faith groups. The nature of the virus and how it spreads means that it may still be some time before large religious gatherings are permitted, but I hope that the reopening of places of worship for individual prayer will be welcomed and that it can and will provide an additional source of comfort for many.
Those are the main changes that will take effect from Monday 22 June. However, in 11 days, from Monday 29 June, some further phase 2 changes will take effect. From then, some indoor workplaces that have so far opted to remain closed in line with guidance, such as factories, labs and warehouses, can start to reopen, but subject to strict physical distancing, hygiene and health and safety guidance. Non-essential offices and call centres should remain closed at this stage.
Businesses that are able to reopen should use the period between now and 29 June to ensure that all physical distancing and safety measures are in place and to contact their staff to put in place staggered work times, agree flexible working where possible for those with childcare issues, and ensure that staff have a safe means of getting to work.
From 29 June, outdoor markets will also be able to reopen, as will outdoor playgrounds and outdoor sports centres. Outdoor businesses such as zoos and garden attractions can also reopen from that date although initially, until we can, I hope, lift this restriction for phase 3, people should not travel more than around 5 miles to visit them. Where those places are ticketed, tickets should be bought in advance.
Restrictions on moving house will also be lifted on 29 June. In addition, registration offices will reopen, but only for essential business, and marriages and civil partnerships will be permitted, but only outdoors at this stage and with limited numbers.
I turn to non-essential retail. The retail sector is a vital part of our economy. It is also a large and complex sector and we want to support people in the sector to get back to work quickly but safely—that is fundamental. We said in the route map that we hoped to allow small shops to reopen in phase 2, and we will. However, by waiting a bit longer, until midway through this phase, we can go a bit further, although still with some limitations.
From 29 June, retail premises of all sizes can reopen, but only if they have outdoor entrances and exits. I am afraid that for the time being, indoor shopping centres will remain closed, except for access to essential shops such as supermarkets and pharmacists. However, indoor shopping centres should prepare to reopen in phase 3, as indicated in the route map.
For those shops that can reopen from 29 June, local authorities and retailers should use the period between now and then to ensure that plans for the responsible use of public spaces are in place, for example, to manage queues, pedestrians and cyclists and to ensure that unnecessary street furniture is removed and that markings and guidance are in place to support strict physical distancing. Shops must also ensure that appropriate physical distancing and hygiene measures are in place.
Of course, all of us as customers have a role to play. When shops reopen, I ask everyone to exercise patience, stick to the measures that are, after all, in place for our safety, and at all times to please respect retail staff, who will be asking us to shop in a slightly different way.
Finally, there are some changes, especially in relation to health and other public services, that have already begun and which will build up over the coming weeks. There will be a more significant reopening of health services, consistent with our national health service mobilisation plan. More general practitioner services will be available, and GP practices will make more visits to shielded patients. The health service more generally will resume more of the services that were regrettably postponed in March.
As I said earlier, dentists will reopen from this Monday coming. In addition, optometry practices will reopen for emergency and essential services from Monday 29 June.
We will work with local authorities and others to resume some care services that were postponed and, more generally, public services will be gradually and safely reopening and scaling up. To take just two examples, energy efficiency schemes and visits to Housing First tenants will start to resume.
Public transport will operate increased services during this period, albeit with constraints on capacity, due to the need for continued physical distancing.
Those are the key specific measures that I can confirm at this stage. They represent a significant but careful change over the next three weeks, as we continue to suppress the virus. They should provide a firm basis for taking further steps in the future.
One other change that was envisaged in the route map for phase 2 was the reopening of outdoor hospitality, such as beer gardens. Unfortunately, I am not able to give a date for that just yet. We might be able to set a date later that is within phase 2, but I have commissioned further advice from our scientific advisory group to inform that decision.
There is emerging evidence that places such as pubs, restaurants and gyms can be hot spots for transmission. It is important that we better understand that evidence and what further mitigation might be necessary to protect people in such spaces, before we permit them to reopen. I appreciate that that will be hard for the hospitality industry. I want to give an assurance to businesses in that sector that we will continue to support preparations for reopening, for example by encouraging local authorities to facilitate the use of open, outdoor spaces that pubs and restaurants can use for additional space.
I expect to have that further scientific advice in two weeks. I will set out then, hopefully on or around 2 July, whether outdoor hospitality can reopen during phase 2—I hope that that will be the case—or whether further mitigations are required ahead of phase 3.
I understand the desire of all businesses to reopen quickly. However, it is vital that when services and venues reopen, they do so safely and in a way that is consistent with continued suppression of the virus. That is how we best avoid a resurgence of the virus that could lead to businesses having to close all over again.
On a related issue—although this affects many other areas, including education and public transport—I have also commissioned further advice from the advisory group on physical distancing requirements. Let me be clear that the advice and evidence we have at this time supports physical distancing at 2m. We know that—although there are no absolutes and we should not see this in isolation—the shorter the distance, the greater the risk of transmission, so I will not change that guidance without rigorous consideration and appropriate assurance.
However, I have asked our advisers to consider whether there are particular settings and circumstances in which, with additional mitigations if necessary, it might be possible in future to recommend a distance of 1m or 1.5m. I hope to have that advice also within two weeks, and I will report on it then. However, let me reiterate that, at this stage, the advice is unchanged: you should continue to maintain 2m distance from people in households other than your own.
Finally, I want to make some broader points about priorities for the future. In the context of beating the virus and saving lives, no priority is higher for me and this Government than getting children back to full-time education, but that must be done safely.
Therefore, as I set out yesterday, we will be working to ensure that contingency plans for blended learning—if and for as long as that is necessary—maximise the time that children spend in school. We will also be working to create the conditions and put in place the protections that can get children back to school on both a full-time and a normal basis as soon as possible. Indeed, part of the reason I am taking a cautious approach to easing lockdown now is to help us do precisely that, by suppressing the virus as much we can. We will work with councils to keep parents and young people fully updated in the period ahead.
We understand the increasing pressures that parents face in juggling childcare and work, so, in the meantime, we will continue to increase access to critical childcare for those who need it most, and we will work with employers to encourage maximum flexibility in working arrangements. Also, although it is not the principal motivation for them, extended household groups may now—and in future, as we expand them, hopefully—help with informal childcare.
Another key issue is public transport. We want people to work from home whenever they can—that is likely to be the advice for the foreseeable future—and to cycle or walk, wherever it is possible. However, as we open more workplaces and public services, more people will use public transport. We have for several weeks recommended that people should wear face coverings in enclosed spaces in which physical distancing might not always be possible, such as on public transport and in shops. That is because of the evidence that wearing face coverings can reduce the risk of the virus being transmitted.
If you have Covid but maybe do not realise it because you do not have symptoms, a face covering reduces the risk of your passing the virus on to other people. Other people’s wearing of face coverings helps to protect you in a similar way. It is not an absolute safeguard; physical distancing, hand washing and good hygiene will always be more important in preventing transmission.
However, face coverings can help to reduce the risk of transmission, and that is important. For that reason, we have decided that, from Monday, face coverings will be mandatory on all public transport; that includes taxis and private hire cabs, buses, trains, the Glasgow subway, Edinburgh trams, planes, and enclosed areas on ferries.
That will be subject to some exemptions: for example, for children under the age of five, for people who have breathing difficulties, and for those who have a physical condition that makes it hard to keep a mask in place. It will also not apply to drivers who are already protected by a shield of some kind.
We believe that that measure will be increasingly important as the use of public transport increases, and that implementing it now will help to reduce the risks of transmission and build public confidence.
Over the next few days, we are consulting further on whether face coverings should also be mandatory in shops. I will report back on that before non-essential retail opens on 29 June. However, I appeal to the public: please do not wait for that—please follow now the strong advice to wear face coverings in shops.
The measures that we have set out today are proportionate and cautious, but they are also significant. They restart more of the economy, reopen more public services, and allow us to see more of our family and friends. They also lay the groundwork for further changes to come. Crucially, we consider that, if everyone abides by the rules and follows the guidance—I cannot stress enough how vital that is—those changes are consistent with the continued suppression of the virus, which is critical to a sustainable recovery.
The changes also mean that the overall message that we communicate to the public must evolve, too. The willingness of all of us to stay at home has been fundamental to our progress so far, and I encourage people still to stay at home as much as possible. However, as we are now permitted to go out more, our overarching message must adapt. In this next phase, instead of asking you to “stay home, protect the NHS and save lives”, we will be asking you to “stay safe, protect others and save lives.”
That advice recognises that, although the virus is being suppressed, it has not gone away. It is still highly infectious, deadly to some and dangerous to many. We must continue to suppress it—indeed, we must do everything that we can to eliminate it as far as is possible. Each and every one of us has a part to play in that. By sticking to the rules in each phase, we can all help. We will keep ourselves safe, we will protect each other—which will also help to protect the national health service—and we will save lives. We will also ensure that all of us, together, can move more quickly and more safely to the next phase.
Please continue to stay 2m away from people in other households; with the exception of those who can form extended household groups, meet with other households only outdoors; wear face coverings in enclosed spaces; wash your hands frequently and thoroughly; and, if you have symptoms of Covid, get a test and self-isolate immediately. I remind everyone that they can book a test at nhsinform.scot or by phoning NHS24 on 0800 028 2816.
If you experience any of the symptoms—a new cough, a fever or a loss of or change in your sense of taste or smell—please do not wait to see if you feel better the next day; book a test immediately and follow the advice on isolation.
For the weeks ahead, let us all remember that, now perhaps more than ever, the decisions that we take as individuals will affect the wellbeing of all of us. If we all act, as we have been doing, in that spirit of solidarity and love for each other, we will get, and keep, the virus under control, and we will get our lives back to something that feels much more normal.