It is suggested that the R number is in a range from 0.7 to 1. On any given week when the assessment picture is put together, the number may well vary, which is why the statisticians encourage us to talk about a range and why the United Kingdom Government, on scientific advice, does not give a specific figure: it talks about a range.
The second factor in the framework is that the virus has a wider impact on our health and social care services in Scotland—on how our people use those services and on how that impacts on non-Covid-19 health harms. We also know that the restrictions that have been necessarily put in place to slow the spread of the virus can, in turn, cause further health harm to our population. Significant work is under way to understand and to mitigate the effects on physical health and mental wellbeing.
The third area of the framework is the restrictions that Scotland, together with the other UK nations, has put in place to slow the spread of the virus, and which affect our broader way of living and society. That includes, for example, the negative effects of increased isolation, particularly for people who live alone, and the impact on children’s wellbeing from schools being closed. We therefore need to draw on a wider range of data and intelligence in order that we can understand the patterns.
Fourthly, along with the negative effects of the global pandemic, the lockdown has had an enormous impact on our economy, with a potential fall of 33 per cent in gross domestic product during the period of lockdown. That is unprecedented, and is causing deep uncertainty and hardship for many businesses, individuals and households. The damaging effect on levels of poverty and inequality might be profound, and the impacts will intensify the longer the lockdown continues. We will see more businesses being unable to recover, and we risk the scarring effects of unemployment. We must do everything possible to avoid permanent structural damage to our economy.
It is important to be clear about the focus of our analysis in the framework. We do not view it as a trade-off between those harms. They are related; health harms impact on society and the economy, just as the societal and economic impacts affect physical and mental health and wellbeing. Navigating the right course through the crisis will involve taking difficult decisions that seek to balance the various interrelated harms, in order to minimise overall harm. As the paper outlines, we will follow seven principles for decision-making: that they are safe, lawful, evidence-based, fair and ethical, clear, realistic and collective.
We have committed to starting an open and engaged conversation with the people of Scotland about how to wrestle with the conflicting approaches that could be taken, between addressing the relative harms and application of the principles that I have set out for our approach. Part of that conversation is about sharing the evidence that we have relied on to make important decisions about transitioning out of the current lockdown arrangements. In the light of our commitment to transparency and open dialogue, I am pleased that more than 11,500 members of the public have used our online dialogue platform, and have generated more than 4,000 ideas about how we should proceed. We will publish in the coming days a summary of what we have heard and how we will use that information.
We have also published a concise update to the framework, including an assessment of the evidence on spread of the virus, a summary of the restrictions that are currently in place, and some options to be considered around variation of distancing measures. That update informed part of our review on 7 May of the restrictions that are currently in place.
I will explain the rationale behind the decision that was taken last week. The rate of transmission of the virus in Scotland—the R number that members have raised—is still too high for many restrictions to be lifted safely. It might also be higher than it is in other parts of the United Kingdom. As a result of the combination of the R number and the number of infectious cases in Scotland, our basic message—that people should stay at home—remains the same today as it was prior to the weekend.
We also said that the Scottish Government would keep matters under review and that we were considering making one immediate change to the guidance, relating to exercise. That change means that, as of Monday this week, if people want to go for a walk more often, or to go for a run and a walk, they are now free to do so. That slight change in guidance was made on the basis of advice that we have been given on outdoor transmission that suggests that the risks of transmission are low, in that context. However, I stress that that change in the guidance relates to exercise that is carried out from an individual’s home rather than exercise that is undertaken after driving from home to a different area to undertake it in another location. I stress that all other lockdown restrictions remain in place.
As the First Minister set out in her statement at the weekend, if we see more evidence of a downward trend in the virus, we will assess whether the potential exists for us to make further minor changes. We could consider whether, for example, garden centres should reopen, and we will think about whether some additional forms of outdoor work can safely resume. In discussion with councils, we will give urgent consideration to the possibility of reopening waste and recycling centres.
In addition, we will look carefully at the steps that are necessary to open up our national health service to a wider range of services than have been available during the pandemic. The NHS remains open, but there are many healthcare procedures that are necessary for our citizens that are not currently being carried out.
As we take very gradual steps out of lockdown, it will be crucial to build on the confidence of the public. One of the key decisions that we have been considering is about the phased return of pupils to schools, which I know is a hugely important issue for children and families right across the country. We will need to build the confidence of staff, pupils, parents and carers so that children and teachers feel safe and secure when they return. I speak from personal experience as a father when I say how important that question is to me. We are working with our partners, including the education recovery group, to ensure that our schools and how we use them will be safe, and we will set out our thoughts in due course.
We will also learn from the international community—in particular, from countries that are further ahead in their pandemic curves than Scotland is—and we will model information on the basis of their experiences.
A fundamental issue is the functioning of the economy. We are working with businesses and trade unions to produce guidance that is specific to Scotland’s needs—our economic needs and our public health requirements. We will publish that guidance sector by sector in the coming days and weeks, including for construction, manufacturing and retail. That relates directly to the point that Alex Rowley raised with me in a question earlier this afternoon.
We are continuing to expand our ability to test people for Covid-19 and to trace the people with whom they have been in contact. That will play an important part in helping us to emerge safely from lockdown.
The next 21-day cycle for reviewing the regulations ends on 28 May, and we will ensure that restrictions do not stay in place for longer than is necessary, based on the evidence. Our approach differs slightly from the one that is being taken by the other three nations. Over the weekend, I was pleased to hear the Prime Minister accept and acknowledge that we might need to move at different paces. It is crucial that we do what is safe for the people of Scotland, based on the evidence that is available to us. The framework provides the basis for us to reconcile that evidence. We will, of course, consider the plans that the UK Government sets out for England to see whether the ideas and policies in them also make sense for Scotland.
It is important, too, that we give clear messaging in order to build the confidence that I have talked about. We will intensify our dialogue with the UK Government and the other devolved Administrations so that there is no room for confusion. It is essential that at no stage are actions taken that run the risk of undoing all the success of the past six to seven weeks, during which the public’s compliance with the changes that we have put in place has been exemplary. We know that the current lockdown remains vital and that it is only because of the action of the people of Scotland that we are now seeing progress being made against the virus.
It is vital that the Scottish Parliament exercises its fundamental purpose in debating and scrutinising the actions of Government. That is critical, on Covid-19. I was pleased also to have the opportunity to give evidence to the COVID-19 Committee on 29 April, and I and my ministerial colleagues will be happy to speak to the committee further in the coming weeks, if that would be helpful. We will continue to keep the committee up to date with developments and to keep it sighted on our decisions—as we did most recently on Sunday, with the decision to remove the once-a-day limit on individuals leaving their homes for exercise.
I set out at the start of my speech that this is the biggest challenge that this generation in our society has faced. Together, we have the opportunity to work collaboratively not only to defeat the virus but to decide on the kind of Scotland that we want to emerge from the crisis. The Scottish Government is committed to exactly that task.