I should point out the normal caveat that such projections are always very crude and are extremely difficult to derive, given the uncertainties around the many factors that will influence future migration flows.
Based partly on the analysis of the distribution of salaries of those who would meet the proposed tier 2 threshold, and on the analysis of recent trends of European Union and non-EU migration, we developed two scenarios that demonstrate the potential effects of the white paper proposals on migration. The first scenario respected the analysis of the white paper and assumed that there would be an 80 per cent reduction in migration. The other one was based on our analysis and assumed that there would be a 70 per cent reduction in the inflow of EU workers, as well as factoring in the migration of dependants, family reunions and student migration, and assuming an outflow rate of 50 per cent. Based on that analysis, we projected that there would be a 50 per cent reduction in EU net migration, which would imply a 30 per cent overall reduction in overseas migration to Scotland.
It is important to note that, as we stressed in the report, such aggregate figures, in effect, mask the impacts of those reductions on different sectors of the economy and on different areas of Scotland, such as local council areas. There were also differentiated effects by gender. The key message in our report is that we should look at not just overall net migration figures but the differential effects in terms of geography, sector and gender.
A key thing that the group discussed was how ending free movement and channelling most migration for work through tier 2 visas, which relate to skilled migration, would disproportionately affect a number of sectors that are dependent on overseas migration and in which, typically, there are lower salaries. Sectors including textiles, social care, leisure and travel, sales and elementary occupations would be particularly detrimentally affected. David Bell will be able to elaborate on some of the effects on different sectors.
We also analysed how different geographic areas might be affected. The analysis of the distribution of salaries and the prevalence of certain sectors in different local areas suggests that certain areas—remote and rural areas, in particular, but other areas that face depopulation and have a preponderance of lower-salaried jobs—would be particularly negatively affected by a substantial reduction in immigration or perhaps even the impossibility of securing immigration through tier 2. That summarises some of the sectoral and regional impacts.
The potential impact in terms of gender is also of note. When we analysed salary distribution by gender, we found that there would be far fewer migrants in occupations in which females are typically employed. Therefore, there would be a disproportionate impact on potential female migration to Scotland.