I will do this quickly. The commission has been working with Landman Economics to develop better scrutiny of budgetary decisions that were taken at UK level between 2010 and 2015. We are about to publish a report on the projections from that, from 2010 to 2022. It is useful that the second report does not look only at taxation and social security; it adds in the impact relating to public services.
With that scrutiny, we have been able to identify that, going forward, the largest losses will be for those in income decile 2, for any family with more than three children and lone parents—those three groups will have the most significant losses. Black and Caribbean communities are the next most affected, and then it is people with severe disabilities. In terms of age, the most significant losses are among the 18 to 24-year-old age group.
In some of this, we are talking about significant figures. Families with one disabled adult have lost £6,500. To go back to what I said earlier, the figure for the Bangladeshi community is actually £4,400. We have broken down the figures for Scotland, which is performing better than other parts of Britain, but it is still not a good picture, given the rising inflation and contracting household income.
The good news is that we have now developed a forward-looking approach. Landman has been working with the Scottish Government on that in relation to child poverty, and there has been a significant amount of engagement with the new social security agency. We are trying to build in learning to show that, if you pull a lever in one place and another one in another place, there is an unintended consequence somewhere else that you did not think through. That is giving the Scottish Government the ability to project the likely impacts, which is very much what equality impact assessment does, but it is not just in a silo of housing. It is about understanding that, if you change something in housing and social care, you have an unintended consequence somewhere else. That is adding a new layer of sophistication to budgeting.
We are hoping to bring up people from Landman at some point in the next six months. We would want to get them to engage with you and other parliamentarians to talk through the model, as well as talking to policy people and civil society about how we can all best use that approach. For budgeting, it is a very exciting thing.
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