I draw a distinction between our attitude to tariff and non-tariff barriers. When the Brexit vote came through, the first thing that we did was scurry over to look at the WTO rules and get people to plough through all that mass of stuff to figure out what impact it could have.
We, like most sectors, would like zero-tariff frictionless trade. One thing that comforts us in the seafood sector is that zero tariffs are mutually beneficial, as they are in other sectors. We did not realise until we started looking that the figures are pretty much balanced—at least, they were in 2015 and 2016, which are the most recent years for which I have information. Given the phenomenon that I have talked about whereby we import the fish that we eat and we export the fish for other people to eat, the figures are remarkably similar—roughly £1 billion-worth of seafood goes in each direction every year. Our stuff is a little bit different—it is often relatively unprocessed.
A couple of our biggest markets are relatively insensitive; I do not mean to be glib about it. Mackerel is the biggest single export from Scotland’s catching sector, and is the biggest single export species for the EU, for that matter. The catch is sold largely outside the EU.
If you look down the list, you will see that the next biggest export is nephrops—although that depends on which year you look at. Nephrops are often in a strong position, because in many markets it is very difficult to see what could replace them—certainly, in the same quantity.
There are small things that give us comfort—or, at least, they do not plunge us into pessimism. The problem is not insurmountable; as Andrew Charles said, we can live with it. The industry is in a strong place, in terms of the catching side. There might be additional costs to absorb, but the industry absorbs bigger costs year on year anyway, as a result of fuel prices and exchange rates, for example. We are relatively relaxed about tariffs without being complacent: we are, at least, not pessimistic.
The non-tariff barriers are a much more serious practical concern. Regardless of whether we have a free trade deal, if we are outside the customs union there will be customs paperwork, and we trade perishable goods. That short-term issue needs to be resolved. Again, however, given that a lot of perishable stuff is coming here from the continent—not just seafood—one would think that it would be in our mutual interests to have between ourselves and the Europeans an arrangement that is as frictionless as possible, if we are outside the customs union. It is now half a century since the Americans put a man on the moon: one would think that there would be enough information technology whizzes out there to get something that works for both sides. I am sure that there is a commitment, and an equal need, on both sides to make this work.
There is a short-term concern, but it should not blind us to the much bigger prize that we see lying out there.